F&O week ahead: Nifty50 to remain choppy ahead of the US Fed meeting?

Asian Markets Update @ 7 am 

The SGX Nifty is trading 70 points (-0.4%) lower compared to its last close, indicating a negative start for the Nifty50 today. Major Asian markets are trading in the red. Japan's Nikkei 225 lost 0.4%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 0.8%.

Global Market Update

US stocks fell on Friday as concerns over the banking sector continued to grow despite the $30 billion rescue of troubled regional bank First Republic. The Dow Jones fell 1.1% to close at 31,861. The S&P 500 fell 1.1% to 3,916, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.7% to close at 11,630.

Index Action

Nifty50
March Futures @ 17,189 📈▲141 (+0.8%)
OI Contracts: 2,39,363 (-2.7%)

The Nifty50 rebounded from the bearish channel and rallied for the second consecutive day on Friday. The European Central Bank raised interest rates by 50 basis points despite the Credit Suisse crisis. Traders can expect bouts of volatility as all eyes are now on the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, which will decide on interest rates this week.

Sectorally, Media (-0.8%) and Pharma (-0.5%) were the biggest draggers while Realty (+3.0%) and Metal (+2.3%) were among the gainers.

The Nifty50 options expiring on 23 March have significant positions at 17,000 and 17,800 calls and 17,000 and 17,100 puts.

According to options data and OI analysis, the Nifty50's long range for the 29 March expiry is between 16,600 and 17,500. On the other hand, 16,900 and 17,300 is the short-term range for this week.

Bank Nifty
March Futures @ 39,834 📈▲438 (+1.1%)
OI Contracts: 1,01,278 (-6.1%)

The Bank Nifty dipped below 39,000 after opening positive but recovered in the second half to close over 1% higher. With 10 of the 12 stocks closing higher, the index closed above 39,500.

Among banking stocks, Kotak Mahindra Bank (+1.7%) and ICICI Bank (+1.5) were the top gainers whereas IDFC First Bank (-0.2%) and Punjab National Bank (-0.1%) fell the most.

The Bank Nifty's options expiring on 23 March have significant positions at the 40,000 and 41,500 calls and 39,000 and 38,000 puts.

According to options data and OI analysis, Bank Nifty's range for the 29th March expiry is between 38,600 and 40,600. On the other hand, 38,900 and 40,300 is the short-term range for this week.

FII and DII Data💰

The Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold shares worth ₹1,766 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) bought shares worth ₹1,817 crore in the cash market. In the derivatives market, FIIs sold index futures worth ₹691 crore and sold index options worth ₹5,290 crore. Further, they bought stock futures worth ₹264 crore and stock options worth ₹155 crore.

India VIX 

The fear gauge India VIX fell 8.9% to 14.76.

Stock Action📊

Long build-up was seen in Bajaj-Auto, NALCO, Aditya Birla Capital, Dr. Reddy’s and Whirlpool.

Short build-up was seen in Biocon, Power Finance Corporation, Marico, HDFC AMC and India Cements.

Under F&O Ban: GNFC and Indiabulls Housing Finance.

*In Futures and Options or F&O, long build-up means an increase in Open Interest (OI) along with an increase in price, and short build-up means an increase in Open Interest (OI) along with a decrease in price.

**Source: nseindia.com. Cash market figures are provisional.