Weekly wrap 1 to 5 April: SENSEX, NIFTY scale new lifetime highs on optimism over better Q4 numbers

• SENSEX, NIFTY scale new lifetime highs on optimism over better Q4 numbers
• NIFTY gained 187 points and SENSEX rose 596 points on a weekly basis.
• NIFTY closed at an all-time high of 22,514 after scaling intraday record high of 22,619 on April 4.
• NIFTY Metal index advanced more than 6% in the last one week riding on record production by constituents in Q4.
• Adani Green Energy surpassed the 10,000MW renewable energy capacity, a first in India.

Hey there! We are back with a quick recap of the markets in the first week of FY25, marked by a positive trend amid volatility.  

Key stock indices, SENSEX and NIFTY, scaled all-time highs this week despite volatility. The benchmark indices moved in a narrow range this week ahead of key policy announcements by the RBI and the US Fed chief’s speech.

Investors were keenly awaiting these events to get cues about the start of the rate cut cycle. The US Fed has stated that it will cut interest rates three times this year, and markets have pinned hopes on a rate cut as early as June.

The RBI on Friday kept the policy rates unchanged for the 7th time in a row which could keep the interest rates on home and other loans flat.

While the RBI remained focused on the withdrawal of the accommodative stance, it kept the growth and inflation forecast unchanged at 7% and 4.5%, respectively, for the current fiscal.

Stock markets started the week on a firm note with key indices hitting new life highs and extending gains to the third straight day.

NIFTY hit its lifetime high of 22,529.95 intraday before settling higher by half a per cent.

SENSEX and NIFTY lost steam on Tuesday due to weak trends in US markets ahead of the crucial US Fed chairman’s speech. SENSEX dropped 110 points while NIFTY settled around the 22,450 level as IT, auto and select private banks shares came under pressure. A rising US dollar, firming US bond yields, and an uptick in crude oil prices hit market sentiment.

Stock markets remained in the negative zone on Wednesday also as better-than-expected US economic data tempered with rate cut hopes. NIFTY slipped below 22,450 level and SENSEX closed marginally lower.

Thursday, however, saw a sudden reversal in market sentiment ahead of the RBI policy announcement. SENSEX and NIFTY broke past their resistance levels to hit fresh lifetime high levels.

NIFTY closed at an all-time high of 22,514 after scaling an intraday record high of 22,619. SENSEX also crossed the 74,000 level to settle at 74,227. HDFC bank, TCS, Titan, Tech Mahindra and Asian Paints were the top gainers of the day among index stocks.

On Friday, stock indices remained range-bound as the RBI suggested it was in no hurry to cut rates. Markets expect the RBI to cut rates from October onwards after keeping a close watch on inflation during monsoon season.

NIFTY closed the week at 22,513.7 points, while SENSEX settled at a new lifetime high of 74,248.22. On a weekly basis, NIFTY gained 187 points while SENSEX rose by 596 points or 0.8%. NIFTY Smallcap and Midcap indices rose to 7%. All sectoral indices except for FMCG closed with gains. NIFTY Media, Metal, PSU Bank, Banks, Financial Services and Realty indices were the lead gainers, jumping up to 6% this week.

Metal shares shine on positive macro data

Metal shares sparkled this week on record production numbers in FY24 by some PSU companies and strong Chinese PMI manufacturing data. NIFTY Metal index advanced more than 6% in the last one week against around 2% gain in benchmark NIFTY as Nalco, Hind Copper, Hindustan Zinc and Vedanta rallied.

Adani Group stocks in limelight again

Adani Group shares such as Adani Green Energy, Adani Power, Adani Wilmar and ACC were major movers this week over a host of developments. Adani group bought a port on the eastern coast, increased shareholding in a cement company and formed an alliance with Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Industries.

Adani Green Energy shares were in the limelight on Wednesday after the company reported crossing the 10,000MW renewable energy capacity milestone. The Adani group company’s total renewable energy operating portfolio stood at 10,934 MW, which is the largest in India.

Tax demand notices haunt corporates

Infosys, Zomato, Hero MotoCorp, Indian Overseas Bank, Vedanta and United Spirits were among the companies that received GST demand notices along with penalties and interest from various tax authorities. Infosys faced a new tax demand of ₹341 crore while Hero MotoCorp was slapped with a ₹605 crore demand notice from the tax department.

The week ahead

After the RBI Policy announcement, investors will keep an eye on Q4 financial numbers for further cues on the direction of stock markets.

Better sales numbers by financial services providers and PMI data have raised hopes of better quarterly numbers. Investors may remain cautious over the rise in oil prices and tensions in the Middle East.