NIFTY50 holds 20-DMA, Can bulls conquer 22,080 resistance?

Asian markets update 7 am

Following Wall Street's positive close, the GIFT NIFTY is pointing to a flat to positive start (+0.1%) for Indian equities today. Meanwhile, Asian markets are trading mixed. Japan's Nikkei is up 1.4% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index is down 0.7%.

U.S. markets update

U.S. stocks closed higher on Thursday despite the rise in core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) index on a monthly basis. The core PCE, Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.4% MoM and 2.8% YoY in January. The monthly increase in January of core PCE pushed the six-month annualised inflation reading above Fed’s 2% target.

Despite the inflation data, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1% to 38,996, while the S&P 500 gained 0.5% to 5,096. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.9% to 16,091.

NIFTY50

• March Futures: 22,160 (▲0.4%)
• Open Interest: 2,61,626 (▲32.5%)

The NIFTY50 ended the highly volatile February F&O series 3% higher. Throughout the month, the NIFTY50 traded in a 1,000-point range, consolidating its gains near the all-time high. On Thursday, the NIFTY50 again protected its key swing low (21,875) and 20-day moving average (around 21,900).

Going forward, it will be crucial to monitor the price action near these support levels. Experts believe that the bullish trend remains intact until the index closes below the swing low (21,875) on the daily chart. On the upside, resistance remains at the recent all-time high (22,297).

The initial OI build-up for the 7 March expiry shows a significant call base at the 22,000 and 22,200 strikes. Conversely, the put base is established at the 22,000 and 21,800 strikes. As per the initial build-up, the NIFTY50 is expected to trade between 21,550-22,750 next week.

BANK NIFTY

• March Futures: 46,546 (▲0.8%)
• Open Interest: 1,62,714 (▲33.8%)

The BANK NIFTY also ended a volatile February series in the green, gaining 3%. The banking index is also consolidating in a wider range between 48,200 and 44,000, with sharp bouts of intraday volatility.

On the daily chart, the BANK NIFTY closed at a very important juncture. It protected the 46,000 mark on a closing basis and closed just shy of its 20-DMA. However, for the BANK NIFTY to make a meaningful recovery, experts believe it needs to close above its 50 DMA, which is just above the 46,500 level. In the shorter term, the index is currently stuck between its 50 and 200 DMAs, which sits around 45,100.

For BANK NIFTY's 6 March expiry, the initial open interest build-up shows a significant base at the 48,000 & 47,000 call option strikes and 46,000 & 45,000 put option strikes. Based on the initial build-up, traders are eyeing BANK NIFTY’s trading range between 47,800 and 44,400 for the March 6 expiry.

FII-DII activity

In the cash market, the Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) bought shares worth ₹3,568 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) sold shares worth ₹230 crore. To track the ratio of long and short open positions of FIIs in the index, log in to https://pro.upstox.com/

Stock scanner

Long build-up: Berger Paints, Hindustan Copper, MCX and Canara Bank

Short build-up: Apollo Hospitals and HDFC AMC

Catch up on yesterday’s trading insights from NIFTY 200! Don't miss our market recap blog, offering valuable insights in a concise format. Click here to read and stay informed

To access a specially curated smartlist of most traded and active stocks, as well as the OI gainers and losers, simply log in: https://pro.upstox.com/

In Futures and Options or F&O, long build-up means an increase in Open Interest (OI) along with an increase in price, and short build-up means an increase in Open Interest(OI) along with a decrease in price.

Source: Upstox and NSE.

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