Monsoon 2024: Skymet forecasts normal ‘rainfall’ season, lists states where rainfall may be deficit
Upstox
2 min read • Updated: April 9, 2024, 2:09 PM
Summary
Skymet’s normal monsoon forecast is backed by the expectation of El Nino – the weather phenomenon of higher ocean surface temperature and the resultant reduced rainfall – being replaced by La Nina, which is generally associated with higher rainfall. However, the monsoon season may start with risk of impairment, attributable to the remnant effects of El Nino, it said.
The monsoon season, officially marked between the period of June 1 and September 31, will witness “normal” rainfall this year, private weather agency Skymet said in its forecast released on Tuesday, April 9.
The cumulative amount of rainfall during the four-month period will be 102% of the long-term average (LPA), it said. The seasonal downpour amounting to 96%-104% of the LPA is categorised as normal.
According to Skymet, its normal monsoon forecast is backed by the expectation of El Nino – the weather phenomenon of higher ocean surface temperature and the resultant reduced rainfall – being replaced by La Nina, which is generally associated with higher rainfall.
“El Nino is swiftly flipping over to La Nina. And, monsoon circulation inclines to be stronger during La Nina years. Also, transition from Super El Nino to strong La Nina has historically tended to produce a decent monsoon,” Skymet Managing Director Jatin Singh said.
However, monsoon season may start with risk of impairment, attributable to the remnant effects of El Nino, Singh noted. “The second half of the season will have an overwhelming edge over the primal phase”.
Which are the states where rainfall could be deficit?
According to Skymet, rainfall could be deficit in some of the country’s eastern states. It specifically names the following provinces:
- Bihar
- Jharkhand
- Odisha
- West Bengal
On other hand, “sufficiently good rains” are expected in the South, West, and Northwest regions, as per a release issued by Skymet. The core monsoon rainfed zone of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh “will receive adequate rainfall”, it added.
Monthwise, Skymet sees 95% rainfall of the LPA in June. The rain activity will gain pace in July, with a cumulative expected downpour of 105% of LPA; followed by 98% of LPA in August and 110% of the long-term average in September.
Notably, the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the country’s official weather forecasting agency, is yet to release its forecast for monsoon. For the summer season, the agency has projected 10-20 days of heatwave in April-June, as against four to eight days of heatwave that are normally recorded.