Climate change to erase nearly one-fifth of global GDP by 2050, says report; here’s how

Climate change will lead to an adverse impact on economies across the world, leading to an erasure of nearly one-fifth of the global gross domestic product (GDP) by the year 2050, according to the findings of a research published in scientific journal Nature.

The global economy will shrink by $38 billion in 2050, said the researchers who conducted the study. They attributed the estimated loss to the climate change caused by carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

The study has been conducted by researchers at Germany’s Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). They claim that their estimate of the GDP loss is a “conservative” projection, and the actual shrinkage to be faced by the global economy could be higher.

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The erasure of $38 billion from the GDP by 2050 is unavoidable despite the best efforts to contain climate change, the researchers said, according to news agency AFP. This estimated amount of loss would account for 17% of the global GDP – seen at $200 billion by 2050 – in absence of climate impacts, they noted.

How will climate change cut the size of global GDP?

According to the study, climate change will warm the earth’s surface temperature, which is bound to cause economic fallouts. The 2016 Paris Climate Accord aims to cap the increase in global temperature to 2 degree Celsius by 2050.

However, the PIK researchers point out that the earth’s temperature has already crossed 1.2 degrees Celsius above the benchmark, which is sufficient to amplify the frequency of heatwaves, floods, droughts and tropical storms. It will also lead to destabilisation of ice sheets, decline of tropical forests and destructive rise in sea-level.

The recurrence of natural disasters will cause frequent economic losses to countries around the world, thereby puncturing the GDP growth.

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“Countries least responsible for climate change are predicted to suffer income loss that is 60% greater than the higher-income countries and 40% greater than higher-emission countries," news agency AFP quoted senior PIK scientist Anders Levermann as saying.

Developed countries to also suffer

While the worst brunt of climate change would be felt by low and middle-income countries who lack the resources to mitigate its impact, the developed countries would not be spared either, as per the report.

The United States, which has the world’s largest GDP, will face a shrinkage of 11% by 2050 due to climate impacts, it said. In Germany as well, an estimated 11% of the economy will be lost due to climate change-related impacts, it added. In France, the erasure is seen higher at 13% by 2050.