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  1. How to trade in Axis Bank ahead of its Q1 results?

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How to trade in Axis Bank ahead of its Q1 results?

Upstox

4 min read | Updated on July 24, 2024, 13:24 IST

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SUMMARY

Ahead of its Q1 earnings announcement, Axis Bank is impliying a move of ±3% ahead of tomorrow's (25 July) expiry. The stock has been trading within an ascending channel pattern for the past month. Traders should monitor this pattern closely as a break above or below the channel will provide further insight into the stock's next move.

Stock list

Axis Bank will announce its June quarter results on 24 July after market hours

Axis Bank will announce its June quarter results on 24 July after market hours

Private sector lender Axis Bank will announce its June quarter results on 24 July. The results are expected to be announced after market hours.

According to experts, Axis Bank could post robust growth in net interest income (NII) and profit in the first quarter, helped by healthy growth in its loan book. Its NII is expected to be in the range of ₹13,300 crore to ₹13,400 crore, up between 12% to 14% YoY. Meanwhile, net profit could be in the range of ₹6,500 crore to ₹6,700 crore, up 12% to 15% YoY.

Additionally, Axis Bank's loans are expected to grow between 13%-14% year-on-year during the quarter. Meanwhile, its deposits are expected to grow in the range of 12%-13% YoY, while gross non-performing assets (NPAs) are likely to decline.

During the earnings call, investors and traders will be watching Axis Bank's net interest margin (NIM), asset quality for the rest of the fiscal year and management's comments on the outlook for loan growth.

Ahead of the Q1 results, Axis Bank shares are trading 0.77% lower at ₹1,253 and have gained over 13% this year.

Technical View

Axis Bank is currently trading within an ascending channel on both daily and weekly charts. This pattern signifies an upward trend, with two upward sloping trend lines denoting resistance and support levels. Traders use these trendlines to place stop-loss orders and profit targets. A break above the channel indicates a possible continuation of the upward trend, while a break below the channel signals a possible trend reversal. Until the range is broken, the stock may remain within this range.

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Meanwhile, on the daily chart, the stock has made four attempts to break above the upper trendline, all of which have failed. Furthermore, the stock has been trading between 1,310 and 1,239 zone for the past month. Traders can monitor the breach of this range and the channel pattern for directional strategies.

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Options overview

Open interest data for the 25 July expiry shows a high concentration of call options between the 1,320 and 1,300 strikes, suggesting resistance levels for Axis Bank. In addition, significant call and put positions at the 1,300 strike suggest range-bound activity around this level.
As of 11:40 am on 24 July, Axis Bank's 25 July at-the-money (ATM) strike is 1,240, with both call and put options priced at ₹40. This indicates an expected price movement of ±3% ahead of 25 July expiry. To make more informed trading decisions, let's look at Axis Bank's historical price behaviour during previous earnings announcements.
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Options strategy for Axis Bank

Based on options data suggesting a potential price movement of ±3%, traders have the opportunity to engage in either a long or short volatility strategy.

For those looking to capitalise on the sharp price movement in Axis Bank, the Long Straddle strategy is appropriate. This involves buying both an at-the-money (ATM) call and put option with the same strike price and expiry of Axis Bank. This strategy aims to profit from a move of more than ±3% in either direction.
Conversely, the Short Straddle strategy is suitable for scenarios where volatility is expected to fall. In this approach, a trader would sell both an ATM call and put option with the same strike price and expiry, implying that the price of Axis Bank will remain within a range of ±3% after the earnings release.
Interested in learning more about Straddles? Check out our UpLearn educational content for a deeper dive. If you're keen on exploring more historical earnings price data like the example above, join our community and get in touch—we'd be happy to share it with you!

Disclaimer

Derivatives trading must be done only by traders who fully understand the risks associated with them and strictly apply risk mechanisms like stop-losses. The information is only for educational purposes. We do not recommend any particular stock, securities and strategies for trading. The stock names mentioned in this article are purely for showing how to do analysis. Take your own decision before investing.

About The Author

Upstox
Upstox News Desk is a team of journalists who passionately cover stock markets, economy, commodities, latest business trends, and personal finance.

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