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  1. Week ahead: US Fed interest rate decision, gold prices, US tariff concerns among key market triggers to watch out

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Week ahead: US Fed interest rate decision, gold prices, US tariff concerns among key market triggers to watch out

Upstox

5 min read | Updated on March 16, 2025, 09:40 IST

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SUMMARY

In the coming week, traders will closely watch interest rate decisions from the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, which will shape market trends. Technically, the NIFTY50 index is consolidating between 22,800 and 22,300. A decisive breakout from this range will offer clearer direction.

Crucial support for NIFTY50 is around 21,800 level, while resistance is around 23,300 level. | Image: Shutterstock

Crucial support for NIFTY50 is around 21,800 level, while resistance is around 23,300 level. | Image: Shutterstock

Amid weak global signals, markets failed to extend the previous week’s gains and traded within a narrow range. The NIFTY50 index hovered around 22,500 and closed at 22,397, down 0.3%.

The volatility stemmed from U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats which triggered a sharp decline in U.S. indices. However, domestic factors remained positive. India’s retail inflation dropped to 3.75% in February, below the Reserve Bank of India’s 4% target. Additionally, lower crude prices and a sustained decline in the dollar index helped limit losses.

All major sectoral indices ended the week in the red except FMCG and Pharma which were flat. IT (-4.4%) and PSU Banks (-2.4%) were the major losers. Meanwhile, sentiment in the broader markets remained weak as the Midcap 100 index fell 2.1% while the Smallcap 100 index plunged 3.9%.

Index breadth

The breadth of the NIFTY50 index remained sluggish as the average 35% of the NIFTY50 stocks traded above their respective 50-day moving average last week. However, it remains below the crucial 50% level, signalling ongoing market weakness. This indicator has failed to break above the 50% level for more than five months.

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FIIs positioning in the index

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) maintained their stance on index futures, with the long-to-short ratio holding steady at 19:81. This reflects a net open interest (OI) of -1.8 lakh contracts, indicating a predominantly short position.

Since the start of 2025, both the net OI and the long-to-short ratio have favoured short positions. Unless there’s substantial unwinding or short-covering, the broader market trend may remain weak.

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However, the intensity of FII sell-offs in the cash market has eased compared to the last five months. While they remained net sellers, the ₹5,738 crore worth of shares sold marked the lowest weekly figure since October 2025. Meanwhile, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) continued to be net buyers, purchasing shares worth ₹5,499 crore.

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NIFTY50 outlook

The technical structure of the NIFTY50 index remains range-bound as per the weekly chart. It formed a small red candle and failed to close above the previous week’s high, thus failing to confirm the bullish reversal hammer candlestick pattern.

As shown on the chart below, the crucial support for the index remains around 21,800 zone, while the resistance of the index is around 23,300 zone. Within this range, the index may remain volatile and range-bound. A breakout of this range will provide further directional insights.

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SENSEX outlook

The technical structure of the SENSEX as per weekly chart remained range-bound, consolidating broadly within previous week’s range. It also faced resistance around the 74,800 zone and failed to confirm the bullish hammer candlestick pattern on the weekly chart.

The short-term trend of SENSEX has turned sideways within the broad range of 75,600 and 72,000. A break of this range on a closing basis will provide further directional clues.

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🗓️Key events in focus: Global markets will be closely watching the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy meeting on March 19, where the central bank is expected to hold interest rates steady at 4.5%. Investors will also monitor the comments of Fed Chair Jerome Powell for hints of potential rate cuts later this year amid rising concerns over an economic slowdown and tariff war. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is set to meet on March 18-19 and is likely to maintain its policy rate at 0.5%.
📌Spotlight: Gold extended its rally for the second consecutive week, hitting new record highs after a brief pause. The surge was driven by softer-than-expected CPI data, bolstering expectations of interest rate cuts in both the U.S. and India. The positive momentum in gold and silver prices persists, but ongoing U.S. tariff discussions are likely to keep volatility high. Any resolution on tariffs could trigger profit-booking in precious metals. MCX Gold closed at ₹87,963 per 10 gm, up 2.4% for the week, while Silver ended the week at ₹1,00,738, up 3.6%.
🛢️Oil: Crude prices ended a seven-week losing streak, closing flat as investors reassessed the swift resolution to the Ukraine war that could restore Russian energy supplies to Western markets. Additionally, the International Energy Agency warned that global oil supply could surpass demand by approximately 6,00,000 barrels per day this year, driven by U.S.-led production growth and weaker-than-expected global demand. Following the developments, the Brent Crude closed the week at $70.5, up 0.2%, while the WTI ended the week flat at $67.2.
📊Stocks in focus: Based on price and open interest, short build-up was seen in PB Fintech (Policy Baazar), Bharat Forge, Sona BLW Precision and IRFC. Similarly, to track the OI and price gainers, log in to Upstox ➡️F&O➡️Futures smart list ➡️OI gainers.
📓✏️Takeaway: The NIFTY50 index struggled to break through the critical resistance of the 21-day exponential moving average and consolidated around the 22,500 mark. It found immediate support near 22,300, bouncing off this level three times last week.

In the upcoming sessions, traders should monitor the 22,800 to 22,300 range on a closing basis. A breakout on either side will provide short-term direction. The broader trend remains confined between the 23,300 resistance and 21,800 support levels.

For intraday range updates and revisions to these levels, visit our daily morning trade setup blog, published at 8 AM before the market opens.


Disclaimer: Derivatives trading must be done only by traders who fully understand the risks associated with them and strictly apply risk mechanisms like stop-losses. The information is only for consumption by the client, and such material should not be redistributed. We do not recommend any particular stock, securities, or trading strategies. The securities quoted are exemplary and not recommendatory. The stock names mentioned in this article are purely to show how to do analysis. Make your own decision before investing.
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Upstox News Desk is a team of journalists who passionately cover stock markets, economy, commodities, latest business trends, and personal finance.

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