Trade setup for 4 May: 18,000— A crucial pivot on expiry?

Blog | F&O

Asian Markets Update @ 7 am 

The SGX Nifty is trading 77 points (-0.4%) lower compared to its last close, indicating a negative start for the Nifty50 today. Major Asian markets are trading in the red. Japan's market is shut on account of a public holiday, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.4%.

Global Market Update

US equities ended a volatile session lower on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.25% to a range of 5.00% to 5.25%. The Fed governor also announced that there would be no rate cuts this year if inflation remains high, dashing hopes of rate cuts.

The Dow Jones declined 0.8% to close at 33,414. The S&P 500 fell 0.7% to 4,090, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.4% to close at 12,025.


Index Action

Nifty50
May Futures @ 18,147 📉▼65 (-0.3%) 
OI Contracts: 1,91,464 (-0.1%)

Amid global market jitters and profit-booking at higher levels, the Nifty 50 edged lower and settled below 18,100. The index is close to the calendar year's high levels of 18,250, and a breakout above these levels could put bulls back in command. On the downside, the multiple averages converging near the 17,700 level is a near-term support zone for the index.

Sectorally, FMCG (+0.7%) and Realty (+0.2%) were the top gainers, whereas IT (-1.0%) and PSU Bank (-0.9%) were the laggards.

The Nifty50 options expiring on 4 May have significant positions at 18,200 and 18,100 calls and 18,000 and 17,900 puts.

According to options data and OI analysis, the Nifty50's long range for the 25th May expiry is between 17,700 and 18,500. On the other hand, 18,000 and 18,200 is the short-term range for this week.


Bank Nifty
May Futures @ 43,320 📉▼47 (-0.1%)
OI Contracts: 92,516 (-0.2%)

The Bank Nifty pared its early losses and recovered from the 43,100 level. Support from the private banks helped the index recover lost ground and ended with cuts of less than a per cent. The banking index, too, is within striking distance of its calendar year-high level of 43,550.

Among banking stocks, Federal Bank (+0.9%) and Kotak Mahindra Bank (+0.5%) were the biggest gainers, while Bank of Baroda (-1.8%) and Axis Bank (-1.2%) were the laggards.

The Bank Nifty's options expiring on 4 May have significant positions at the 43,500 and 44,000 calls and 43,000 and 43,200 puts.

According to options data and OI analysis, Bank Nifty's range for the 25th May expiry is between 42,200 and 44,400. On the other hand, 43,000 and 43,600 is the short-term range for this week.


FII and DII Data💰

The Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) bought shares worth ₹1,338 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) sold shares worth ₹583 crore in the cash market. In the derivatives market, FIIs sold index futures worth ₹1,451 crore and bought index options worth ₹8,309 crore. Further, they sold stock futures worth ₹771 crore and bought stock options worth ₹35 crore.

India VIX

The fear gauge India VIX fell 0.5% to 11.84.


Stock Action📊

Long build-up was seen in MRF, BHEL, Apollo Tyres, Deepak Nitrite and Polycab.

Short build-up was seen in Manappuram Finance, TCS, Cummins India, Ambuja Cements and Bank of Baroda.

Under F&O Ban: Manappuram Finance.


*In Futures and Options or F&O, long build-up means an increase in Open Interest (OI) along with an increase in price, and short build-up means an increase in Open Interest (OI) along with a decrease in price.

**Source: nseindia.com. Cash market figures are provisional.

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