Trade setup for 3 May: Nifty50 to consolidate after a sharp run-up?

Blog | F&O

Asian Markets Update @ 7 am 

The SGX Nifty is trading 75 points (-0.4%) lower compared to its last close, indicating a negative start for the Nifty50 today. Major Asian markets are trading in the red. Japan's market is shut because of a public holiday, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.4%.

Global Market Update

US stocks slumped a day ahead of the Fed interest rate decision after banking stocks fell sharply amid concerns about the health of the regional banks. The Dow Jones declined 1% to close at 33,684. The S&P 500 fell 1.1% to 4,119, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 1% to close at 12,080.


Index Action

Nifty50
May Futures @ 18,204 📈▲93 (+0.5%)  
OI Contracts: 1,95,095 (+11.4%)

Stable global cues and ongoing foreign portfolio investors' buying helped the Nifty end at a three-month high level. Gains in Oil & Gas and Metal stocks helped the end with nearly half a per cent increase.

Well, we've all heard the adage "sell in May and go away". Interestingly, data from the last 10 years shows that the Nifty50 index has given positive returns in May in 7 out of the 10 years. The index has given negative returns only in 2018, 2020 and 2022.

Sectorally, Metal (+1.4%) and Oil & Gas (+1.1%) were the top gainers, whereas Pharma (-0.1%) and FMCG (-0.1%) were the laggards.

The Nifty50 options expiring on 4 May have significant positions at 18,200 and 18,300 calls and 18,000 and 18,100 puts.

According to options data and OI analysis, the Nifty50's long range for the 25th May expiry is between 17,70 and 18,550. On the other hand, 18,000 and 18,250 is the short-term range for this week.


Bank Nifty
May Futures @ 43,347 📈▲130 (+0.3%)
OI Contracts: 93,865 (+2.4%)

The Bank Nifty slipped lower from 43,500 levels but settled with nearly a quarter per cent gain. Gains in PSU and private banks helped the index maintain its gains and close above the 43,300 level.

Among banking stocks, IDFC First Bank (+3.9%) and AU Small Finance Bank (+3.0%) were the biggest gainers, while Kotak Mahindra Bank (-0.8%) and SBI (-0.5%) were the laggards.

The Bank Nifty's options expiring on 4 May have significant positions at the 43,500 and 44,000 calls and 43,000 and 42,800 puts.

According to options data and OI analysis, Bank Nifty's range for the 25th May expiry is between 42,200 and 44,400. On the other hand, 42,900 and 43,800 is the short-term range for this week.


FII and DII Data💰

The Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) bought shares worth ₹1,997 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) sold shares worth ₹394 crore in the cash market. In the derivatives market, FIIs bought index futures worth ₹11,982 crore and sold index options worth ₹15,942 crore. Further, they bought stock futures worth ₹1,411 crore and sold stock options worth ₹65 crore.

India VIX

TThe fear gauge India VIX rose 8.6% to 11.90.


Stock Action📊

Long build-up was seen in ONGC, Power Finance Corporation, Indigo, PVR and Astral.

Short build-up was seen in Coforge, United Breweries, Atul Ltd, Hero MotoCorp and Exide Industries.


*In Futures and Options or F&O, long build-up means an increase in Open Interest (OI) along with an increase in price, and short build-up means an increase in Open Interest (OI) along with a decrease in price.

**Source: nseindia.com. Cash market figures are provisional.

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