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  1. Crude oil sustains bullish momentum, silver to reclaim 21 EMA?; check today's trade setup

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Crude oil sustains bullish momentum, silver to reclaim 21 EMA?; check today's trade setup

Upstox

4 min read | Updated on January 06, 2025, 18:53 IST

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SUMMARY

Silver began Monday's session on a positive note and is currently trading above its 21-day EMA. A successful reclaim of the critical ₹90,250 resistance level in March's futures contract, coupled with maintaining its position above the 21-day EMA, could pave the way for further gains.

Silver started the Monday’s session on a bullish note.

Silver started the Monday’s session on a bullish note.

Market recap (as of 6:40 pm)

  • Gold 5 Feb Futures: ₹77,404/ 10 gram (▲ 0.11%)
  • Silver 5 March Futures: ₹91,263/ 1 kg (▲ 2.2%)
  • Crude Oil 17 Jan Futures: ₹6,389/ 1 BBL (▲ 0.25%)
Gold: The yellow metal trades marginally lower today, with spot gold trading 0.08% higher at $2,657 per ounce. The strong US dollar index, which traded above the 109 level against a basket of other currencies, impacted today's gold prices.
Silver: Silver also traded higher, up 2.75%% at $30.88 per ounce in the spot market. Precious metal investors are looking forward to key economic data, including US initial jobless claim numbers, which will be announced later this week on Thursday. China's CPI data for December month will be released on the same day.
Crude Oil: Oil prices traded higher on Monday, with Brent Futures trading around $77.13, up 0.89%, while WTI Crude traded 0.95% higher around $74.64. Oil prices are at their highest levels since mid-October 2024, supported by rising demand amid colder weather conditions and expectations of tighter sanctions on Iranian and Russian oil exports.

Technical structure

Gold: The yellow metal formed an indecision candle on the weekly chart, extending the range-bound movement for the seventh week in a row. It took support at weekly 21 exponential moving average (EMA) second time in last two weeks and started the Monday’s session on positive note.

However, with broader trend remaining range-bound, traders can keep an eye on the high and low of the indecision candle. A breakout from this zone will provide short-term directional clues. Meanwhile, investors should keep an eye on weekly 20 EMA. If gold surrenders the crucial support level on closing basis, it may extend weakness upto 50 weekly EMA. Meanwhile, a close above $2,650 on the spot chart will change the trend in favour of bulls.

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Silver: Silver started the Monday’s session on a bullish note, extending previous week’s positive momentum. After taking support at 50 weekly EMA and is currently testing the 21 weekly EMA. If it captures $29.89 on the basis, it may extend the bullish momentum upto $31.56. Meanwhile, a rejection from 20 weekly EMA and a close below $28.74 will signal weakness.
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Crude oil: Oil prices began the week on a strong footing, building on the bullish momentum from the previous week. Last week, prices reclaimed the 21-week EMA and formed a bullish candle on the weekly chart. Furthermore, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) achieved its highest closing in two months, signaling continued strength in the market.

For the upcoming week, traders should focus on the $75 on the spot chart of WTI. If crude reclaims this crucial resistance zone, which coincides with its 200 weekly EMA—then it may extend the bullish momentum up to $79. On the flip side, a close below $72 will change the trend in favour of bears.

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The open interest data of the 15 January expiry on MCX reflects continuation of the bullish momentum. The maximum put base was seen at 6,000 and 6,300 strike, suggesting support for the crude around these zones. Conversely, the call base was seen at 6,400 strike with relatively low volume.

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Disclaimer:

Derivatives trading must be done only by traders who fully understand the risks associated with them and strictly apply risk mechanisms like stop-losses. The information is only for the client's consumption, and such material should not be redistributed. We do not recommend any particular stock, securities, or strategies for trading. The securities quoted are exemplary and are not recommendatory. The stock names mentioned in this article are purely to show how to do analysis. Take your own decision before investing.

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Upstox
Upstox News Desk is a team of journalists who passionately cover stock markets, economy, commodities, latest business trends, and personal finance.

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