Donald Trump vs Kamala Harris: New divisions among Indian-American voters. How could it sway 2024 US election?

With the US presidential election fast approaching, the nation’s attention is turning to its burgeoning Indian-American community, now the second-largest immigrant group in the country. This demographic, over 5.2 million strong, has emerged as a powerful political bloc. This year, they are in the spotlight not only because of their size and influence in battleground states but also due to the historic possibility that a candidate of Indian heritage—Democratic nominee and incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris—could occupy the Oval Office.

Historically, Indian-Americans have overwhelmingly supported the Democratic Party.

Yet, the 2024 election cycle has seen some shifts, particularly among younger, male voters, hinting that the community’s political allegiance may be less predictable than before. A recent follow-up to the Indian American Attitudes Survey (IAAS), conducted by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and YouGov, reveals nuanced shifts in voting intentions within the diaspora.

The IAAS survey data from September to October 2024 shows that while Indian-Americans largely favour the Democratic Party, support for former President Donald Trump among this group has seen a modest increase since the 2020 election. Forty-seven percent of Indian-Americans now identify as Democrats—a decrease from 56% in 2020—while the share identifying as Republicans has remained steady. 32% of respondents in the 2024 survey indicated their intention to vote for Trump, up slightly from prior election cycles.

This incremental shift is most pronounced among Indian-American men, especially younger men born in the United States. While 61% of Indian-American voters plan to cast their ballots for Kamala Harris, this share drops to 53% among male respondents. Among women, support for Harris remains robust at 67%, with only 22% expressing a preference for Trump.

One of the survey’s most striking revelations is the gender divide emerging within the Indian-American community, a phenomenon not seen in previous election cycles. Milan Vaishnav, Director of the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, emphasises that this divide is particularly stark among younger voters.

"This is the first time we’ve seen a major gender gap within the community," Milan Vaishnav, Director of the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said in an interview with ANI. "The shift in support away from the Democratic Party is almost entirely driven by Indian-American men, especially younger men."

Abortion rights have emerged as a galvanising issue for Indian-American voters, ranking second after inflation and economic concerns. The issue resonates especially with Democratic-leaning and female respondents, for whom reproductive rights represent a major consideration in their voting choices. "This is something that has been a real, contentious issue in American politics," Vaishnav said.

Immigration policy also shapes Indian-American voting behaviour, especially among men, who often express concern over perceived leniency toward illegal immigration by the Democratic Party. Some survey respondents cited Democratic stances on identity politics and immigration as factors in their decision to support Republicans.

Despite the Republican Party’s attempts to woo Indian-American voters, Indian-American Republicans such as Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy hold relatively low favourability within the community.