Budget 2025-26: Fiscal deficit, capex, tax revenues, and other key numbers to watch

Sitharaman, who in 2019 replaced the traditional leather briefcase with a red 'bahi-khata', will present a paperless budget for the fourth straight year.

With this budget, Sitharaman also moves closer to the record of 10 budgets presented by former Prime Minister Morarji Desai. She already holds the record for presenting the most consecutive budgets under Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Here are key numbers to watch:

• The fiscal deficit for FY25 (April 2024-March 2025) is estimated at 4.9% of GDP.
• The government aims to lower it to 4.5% in FY26 as part of its fiscal consolidation roadmap.
• Markets will watch for the FY26 deficit target and broader fiscal plans.

• The government allocated Rs 11.1 trillion for capital expenditure in FY25.
• Election-related delays in spending could lead to lower-than-budgeted expenditure.
• Investors will look for the government’s capex push in FY26.

• Sitharaman has pledged to put central government debt on a declining trajectory from FY27.
• Markets will assess debt-to-GDP targets and fiscal consolidation plans.
• General government debt stood at 85% of GDP in 2024, with central government debt at 57%.

• The government’s gross borrowing for FY25 is Rs 14.01 trillion.
• With lower dividends from the RBI in FY26, borrowing figures will be closely tracked.

• The FY25 budget pegged gross tax revenue at Rs 38.40 trillion, up 11.72% from FY24.
• This includes Rs 22.07 trillion from direct taxes and Rs 16.33 trillion from indirect taxes.

• GST revenue is estimated to grow 11% to Rs 10.62 trillion in FY25.
• Slowing revenue growth in recent months raises questions about FY26 projections.

• Nominal GDP growth for FY25 is projected at 10.5%.
• Real GDP growth, as per the National Statistical Office (NSO), is estimated at 6.4%.
• Budget estimates for FY26 will offer insights into expected inflation and growth.

• The government expects ₹2.33 lakh crore from the RBI and financial institutions and ₹56,200 crore from state-owned firms in FY25.
• Non-tax revenue projections for FY26 will be a key focus.

• The government targeted ₹500 billion from divestments and asset sales in FY25.
• Investors will watch for FY26 targets and a roadmap for asset monetisation.

• Spending on key welfare schemes such as NREGA and priority sectors like healthcare and education will also be in focus.