India’s GDP growth pegged at 6.4% for FY2024-25 in first advance estimates

India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow by 6.4% in the financial year 2024-25, according to the government's first advance estimates released on Tuesday. The preliminary data from National Statistics Office’s (NSO) suggests that the growth is likely to settle below the 7% mark for the first time in four years.

"Real GDP or GDP at Constant Prices is estimated to attain a level of ₹184.88 lakh crore in the financial year 2024-25, against the Provisional Estimate of GDP for the year 2023-24 of ₹173.82 lakh crore," the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation said in a release.

Nominal GDP, which factors in inflation, is projected to rise by 9.7% to ₹324.11 lakh crore in FY 2024-25, marginally higher than the 9.6% growth seen in the previous year.

Real Gross Value Added (GVA) is estimated to grow by 6.4% in FY 2024-25, down from 7.2% in the prior year.

Private consumption, a major driver of economic growth, witnessed a growth rate of 7.3% during FY 2024-25, up from 4.0% in the previous year. Government spending is also set to rebound, with final consumption expenditure expected to grow by 4.1%, compared to 2.5% in FY 2023-24.

The advance estimates rely on a benchmark-indicator method, using data from sectors such as industrial production, agriculture, trade, and government accounts. Indicators like GST collections, financial performance of listed companies, and passenger and cargo traffic have also informed the projections.

According to the NSO, the figures are subject to revisions as more data becomes available.

"Improved data coverage and revision in input data made by source agencies would have a bearing on subsequent revisions of these estimates. Estimates are, therefore, likely to undergo revisions for the aforesaid causes in due course, as per the release calendar," the release said.

The second advance estimates, along with October-December quarter GDP figures, will be released on February 28, 2025.