Meesho shares surge 12% as UBS raises NMV, EBITDA estimates for FY29-31; here's what analysts said

In a note, analysts at Switzerland-based global investment major UBS Group raised the company’s NMV estimates by 7-18%, while noting a similar increase in contribution profit estimates and a 20-40% increase in EBITDA for FY29-31.

The analysts said that the higher NMV forecasts reflect continued flywheel from sellers and buyers, coupled with rapid expansion in its stock-keeping units (SKUs) and logistics partners.

The company saw its net transacting sellers surge 81% year-on-year (YoY) to 1.04 million and buyers soar 29% YoY to 274 million in the April-June quarter of the 2026-27 financial year (Q1 FY27).

The UBS analysts added that the large increase in Meesho’s EBITDA estimates reflects a stronger medium-term margin trajectory, driven by improving advertisement monetisation and logistics economics.

Meesho Q1 results

The e-commerce firm reported a YoY net loss of ₹1,328 crore for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, narrowing from a net loss of ₹2,894 crore seen in the corresponding quarter last year.

For Q1 FY27, the company’s revenue from operations increased 48% YoY to ₹3,713 crore as compared to ₹2,504 crore in Q1 FY26, driven by improved delivery conversion through lower cancellations, Return-to-Origin (RTO) rates and higher platform monetisation.

On the operational level, Meesho’s EBITDA loss stood at ₹224 crore in Q1 FY27, as against a loss of ₹265 crore in the same quarter of the previous fiscal year.

The e-commerce platform’s NMV registered a yearly growth of 34% to ₹11,614 crore, supported by continued expansion in its user base and higher engagement levels on the platform.

The company also saw improvement in profitability metrics, with contribution margin expanding to 4.6% of NMV, up 54 basis points sequentially, driven by logistics efficiencies and better monetisation.

Meesho stock performance

At around 12:05 PM, the shares were trading 6.25% higher at ₹232.85 apiece. The scrip has increased 15% in the past week and 19% over the month. On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, it has advanced 34%.

While the stock hit a 52-week high of ₹254.40 per equity share on December 18, 2025, it touched a year’s low of ₹125.56 per unit on March 16, 2026.

Meesho has a total market capitalisation of ₹1.08 lakh crore as of September 22, 2026, according to data on the NSE.