Paytm shares pare losses after 10% plunge, still down 5%: What Goldman Sachs sees ahead

Shares of Paytm operator One 97 Communications were deep in the red on Thursday, October 8. The stock tumbled as much as 10% to hit an intraday low of ₹1,558.80 apiece on the NSE before recovering some of the losses.

At 1:16 PM, Paytm shares traded at ₹1,639.30 apiece on the NSE, down 5.36%.

The stock was in the spotlight amid the latest media reports that traders and industry associations have allegedly sought a deferment of the MDR rollout from October 15 this year to January 2027. The requests have reportedly been made to both the Finance Ministry and NPCI; however, no official sources have confirmed the development.

Meanwhile, market participants were also focused on a latest report by Goldman Sachs on the stock's outlook, which highlighted several potential tailwinds for the payments platform.

Earlier this year, the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) postponed the deadline for Unified Payments Interface (UPI) providers to comply with its 30% market-share cap by an additional two years. The deadline is now set for December 31, 2026.

Goldman Sachs analysts said the implementation of the market-share cap is likely to be a material event for Paytm, as regulatory oversight could help level the competitive landscape in the UPI market.

Last month, the NPCI had introduced a merchant discount rate (MDR) of up to 0.4% on UPI person-to-merchant (P2M) transactions exceeding ₹2,000. This is expected to come into effect from October 15, 2026.

Paytm had said that this will generate additional revenue from the merchant business for many of the payment transactions that were free earlier.

The analysts also said that Paytm’s underlying market share, revenue growth and margin momentum remain strong, and they expect this trend to continue.

They incorporated the recently announced UPI MDR into their estimates and raised their EPS estimates for Paytm by up to 39%, with the change expected to drive up to 40% upgrades to their EBITDA estimates.

The analysts also see potential for Paytm’s earnings and valuation multiples from the scale-up of Postpaid and a potential relaunch of its wallet.

Furthermore, the market sentiment for Paytm’s stock was also impacted due to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) officially removing Paytm Payments Bank from the list of recognised scheduled banks on Wednesday following the cancellation of its banking licence.

In April this year, the RBI had cancelled the banking licence issued to PPBL for non-compliance with norms, saying affairs of the bank were conducted in a manner detrimental to the interest of its depositors.

Later, the Delhi High Court ordered that Paytm Payments Bank Ltd (PPBL) be wound up. “Paytm Payments Bank Limited has been excluded from the Second Schedule to the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934...,” the central bank said in a statement on Wednesday.

Paytm share price trends

At 11:50 AM, Paytm shares were trading at ₹1,644.7 apiece on the National Stock Exchange, falling 5.04%.

From the beginning of the year, shares of One 97 Communications have surged 29%. Over a month’s time, the stock has lost 0.3%, while for the six-month period, the stock has climbed over 49%.

Shares of the company had touched their one-year high of ₹1,855.50 apiece on September 16, 2026, while their 52-week low of ₹930.60 was hit on March 30, 2026.

According to NSE data, as of October 8, 2026, Paytm has a total market capitalisation of ₹1.07 lakh crore.