NMDC shares decline for 2nd day post weak earnings; is recovery possible in Q2?

State-run mineral producer, NMDC shares declined for a second consecutive intraday trading session on Tuesday, August 18, as investors continued exercising selling pressure after the company’s muted Q1 earnings growth and concerns over higher costs offsetting volume growth.

NSE data showed that NMDC shares dropped 2.3% to touch their intraday low of ₹83.50 apiece on Tuesday’s market, in contrast to ₹85.50 apiece at the previous equity market close.

Although the company shares ended higher post the second half on Monday, due to the overall macro tailwind and commodity metal price improvement in the global market, NMDC shares lost 4% during their intraday trading session on August 17 before the temporary recovery.

The exchange data showed that on Monday’s market, NMDC shares declined 4% to a low of ₹81.05 apiece, as investors were reacting to the muted April to June quarter earnings performance for the fiscal year 2026-27.

The state-run mineral producer released their Q1 earnings report after the market hours on Friday, last week, August 14, resulting in the shares reacting on Monday’s market this week.

Why are NMDC shares falling?

Iron ore producer, NMDC shares continued its decline for the second day on Tuesday, August 18, as investors focused on the weak earnings potential ahead due to the higher costs weighing down the financial performance.

In Q1 results, NMDC recorded a more than 51% rise in its cost of raw materials consumed, which in turn increased the overall expenses in the period. With marginal revenue growth in the June quarter, the company’s net profit increased around 2% in the period under review.

Leading global investment firms, Citibank and Goldman Sachs said that the Q1 print missed the estimates largely due to the lower realisation factor with costs exceeding the anticipated levels in the period under review.

Hence, the conservative outlook from the investment firms also impacted the company’s shares performance in the market as investors remained concerned over the rising cost of operations and shrinking margins.

Along with muted growth in the company's earnings, investors were also focused on the weak growth in the demerged entity, NMDC Steel’s Q1 earnings, which in turn acted as somewhat of a spillover effect, with margins contracting for the iron and steel producer.

NMDC Steel’s Q1 EBITDA margins contracted to 10.9% in the period under review, from 12.1% a year ago due to the increase in raw material costs in the June quarter of FY27.

NMDC Q1 earnings report

What’s next for NMDC?

Sharing the outlook for the upcoming period, analysts from Citibank expect NMDC’s domestic prices to remain range-bound, while global price rates are likely to drop lower amid the current headwinds.

The experts also said that the company’s volumes are in focus as the iron ore despatches only increased 1% on a year-on-year (YoY) basis; hence, NMDC has to increase its volumes to achieve the required run rate for the fiscal year.

In line with the estimates, Goldman Sachs experts also predict weak upcoming Q2 earnings for FY27, due to the recent price cuts and seasonal weakness impacting the near-term performance.

“Looking ahead, believe that recent price cuts and seasonally weak Q2 are likely to weigh on near-term performance,” said Goldman Sachs analysts.

NMDC share performance

NMDC shares have delivered more than 50% returns on their investment in the last five years, 117% gains in the last three years, and over 20% returns to investors in the past one-year period, according to NSE data.

Although on a year-to-date (YTD) basis, the company's shares were trading flat, NMDC stock was up 0.5% in the last one month. The exchange data also showed that the company’s stock was trading more than 2% lower in the last five days.

Shares of NMDC surged to their 52-week high of ₹97.49 apiece on June 3, 2026, while the 52-week low was at ₹68.19 apiece on August 29, 2025. The company’s market capitalisation (m-cap) was at ₹73,376 crore as of the trading session on Tuesday, August 18, 2026.