UBL in focus post CEO's statement on beer industry; what analysts say on alco-bev sector

Gupta said the Indian beer industry is facing a “major trouble” amid rising input costs triggered by the war, supply shortages, and restrictions on pricing imposed by state governments.

Urging for government intervention, Gupta said the lack of regulatory support could stall growth and innovation in the sector and make it difficult to meet the promises.

“I think the beer industry is in major trouble right now because of the war and the financial impact it has on input costs and the inability to take pricing without government approval,” Gupta told PTI.

The government has to come forward and support the domestic beer industry; otherwise, it will stall innovation. The impact on beer is disproportionately higher than any other industry, he said.

"There is a significantly bigger impact of war on our industry because of cost increases on bottles, raw materials (the Indian rupee against the dollar not being great), and exports getting hammered, which was a profitable business, and supply shortages," he said.

Gupta also flagged regulatory constraints, noting that pricing for beer is largely controlled by state governments through excise policies.

“About 75% of the business is regulated. We cannot even control pricing,” he said, adding that he has been engaging with state authorities for relief.

“I am asking for a 15% increase in my selling price to the government, not to the consumer,” he said, explaining that a large share of the realisation goes as taxes. In some states, such as Telangana, he said, United Breweries receives about Rs 330 per case of beer, while government levies amount to around Rs 1,400.

Over the can shortage, Gupta said, despite the government notification, it is still not resolved, and this is going to stay.

"Aluminium prices are significantly increasing. Also, with the gas shortage, manufacturers can declare force majeure, and local can manufacturers are saying that they will not be able to produce fully, plus importing cans has become very expensive because of aluminium prices..." he said.

UBL, along with Heineken, is encouraging companies to invest in India. "So, people can set up their plants, and we are signing up their tie-ups, but that will take a couple of years," he said.

BIS certification

Earlier this year, the government extended the timeline for BIS certification on imported cans, a move which was expected to help bridge the gap between demand and supply before the arrival of the peak summer season.

This move was expected to ease supply constraints faced by companies ranging from cola manufacturers to beer brewers, who had raised concerns over an acute shortage of cans.

Gupta estimated that the war has added at least 15% to production costs, affecting bottles, raw materials, and exports. “Even if war stops today, there is still a minimum impact of six months.”

When asked about the weather and rains in Northern India, Gupta said he is "least worried" about it, as there is news of a hotter summer this year, and, moreover, some southern states reported early summers, and consumption is increasing in some of those states.

"For me, the biggest challenge is the cost increase on suppliers like us... Either they (the government) give us a temporary price increase on our cost or give us some relief on their excise duties," said Gupta.

Rising costs will lead to supply shortages

Gupta cautioned that rising costs could lead to supply shortages as smaller breweries may struggle to sustain operations. He urged regulators to provide temporary relief through excise duty adjustments or pricing flexibility.

“We do not have deep pockets… if we proactively work together with the government, we will be able to manage working capital and imports,” he said.

On consumption trends, Gupta said downtrading has begun, with consumers shifting to economy brands and smaller pack sizes.

“People are going towards cans because the cash outlay is less. Wallet pressures are pushing smaller sizes and less consumption,” he observed. However, he added that overall beer volumes have grown 4.5–5% in the past two years, with value growth at 7–8%.

What analysts say on alco-bev sector

Avendus Capital has initiated coverage on India’s alcoholic beverage sector, highlighting its resilience and long-term growth potential driven by premiumisation trends and strong entry barriers.

In its latest note, the financial services firm said that while a standard bottle may contain just 750 ml of liquid, the category carries a mix of aspiration, taxation, regulation and significant investor interest.

The firm noted that alcohol remains one of India’s most resilient consumption segments, with demand anchored in habit, social occasions and rising consumer aspirations rather than pure necessity.

The sector also benefits from high entry barriers due to heavy state regulations, elevated taxation and tightly controlled distribution channels.

Avendus further pointed out that premiumisation is emerging as a key growth driver, as consumers increasingly shift towards higher-quality brands and experiences. This transition is gradually turning the industry from a volume-led play into a value-driven growth story, with improved margin potential for companies.

Backed by this theme, Avendus Capital has initiated coverage with a positive stance on several companies in the space such as UBL, United Spirits (USL), Radico Khaitan, Tilaknagar Industries, and Allied Blenders and Distillers.

The firm believes that companies with strong brand portfolios, distribution strength and exposure to premium segments are well positioned to benefit from evolving consumer preferences and sustained demand in the alco-bev space.