Tata Motors CV shares jump 6%; CEO sees West Asia crisis as short-term hurdle to demand

Shares of Tata Motors Ltd (the commercial vehicle arm of the automobile giant) rallied as much as 5.73% to ₹435 apiece on the NSE on Thursday, June 25, following an optimistic outlook by the company's CEO Girish Wagh.

The stock eventually ended at ₹431.90 on the NSE, up 4.98%.

Wagh, as reported by news agency PTI, said that the implications of the West Asia war, especially the diesel price hike, will have a short-term impact on domestic commercial vehicle demand, which is expected to grow in the single digit this fiscal, but India's macro-economic growth will help overcome it in the long term.

Terming fuel price hikes and increases in the cost of commodities as "cyclical headwinds", the CEO said those will lead to some changes in the quarterly and annual demand, but in the long term, "India's growth story will lead to an increase in road freight, and therefore the commercial vehicle demand".

"We do have short-term headwinds. The Middle East crisis, the resultant increase in oil prices, and the final resultant but reduced intensity increase in diesel prices -- it is a headwind," Wagh told reporters in an interaction. Noting that commodity cost increase is also a headwind, he said, adding, "but we believe that these are more cyclical headwinds".

Presenting a bullish long-term outlook, Wagh said, "The GDP growth, industrial index of production, the way it has been growing, the growth in manufacturing, growth in consumption, growth in infrastructure investments, we believe these are structural tailwinds."

Wagh further said, "From that perspective, in the longer term, the tailwinds will have their effect more than headwinds and therefore, in the longer term, the industry will grow."

Stating that freight growth on road is very closely linked to GDP growth, he said, "Till the time we see GDP growth happening in the range of 6-8 per cent, we should see a healthy growth in road freight."

CV Industry in India

The CV industry witnessed a single-digit decline in growth in the first half of the last fiscal but recovered with double-digit growth in the second half after GST rate rationalisation, Wagh noted.

As per SIAM data, the CV segment posted its highest-ever wholesales in 2025-26 with 10.80 lakh units, up 12.6%, compared to 2024-25.

When asked about the impact of the West Asia war on Tata Motors' operations in the region, Wagh said it had an impact on demand in the international business, and also a bigger impact on the supply chain.

"The Middle East used to contribute about 20% of our total international business (monthly volumes) and in the first two months (of the US-Iran war) it came to zero...there were no shipments, there was no movement happening there."

Yet, he said that starting from last month, the company has slowly started getting back there.

"This month, we will be shipping vehicles to the Middle East. So the business is getting back on track, and I think the underlying demand is still there in the Middle East..."

Wagh said the company looked at some alternate routes for reaching vehicles to the UAE despite being longer, circuitous, and higher cost, "but fortunately, because the Strait of Hormuz is open now, we don't have to do that".

On the supply chain impact, Wagh said that as a lot of materials came through the West Asia region, there was not only reduced material availability for some time, mostly for commodities, but also there were increased prices of commodities such as aluminum.

"All this has been managed now. The production impact, while it would have been there, has not been to a large extent. The residual impact on commodity cost and inflation impact remains," he said, adding TML would go ahead with its planned vehicle price hike in July to partially offset the impact.

Wagh said as a result of the crisis, TML has reassessed its supply chain network and started a de-risking exercise.

"So much of dependence on one route is something that we will de-risk," Wagh said, adding it would also include vehicle exports.

Price hike from July 1, 2026

Last week, Tata Motors said it would hike prices of commercial vehicles by up to 2.5% across its range from July 1 to partially offset the impact of rising commodity prices and other input costs.

The price increase will vary depending on the model and variant, Tata Motors said in a statement.

The price increase is being undertaken to partially offset the impact of rising commodity prices and other input costs, it added.

Recent business updates

Tata Motors on June 21, 2026, said it has secured orders for over 3,400 electric commercial vehicles (eCV) across freight, logistics and passenger mobility segments.

The orders comprising around 2,000 small commercial vehicles and pick-ups, 900 trucks, and 500 buses, cut across a diverse range of applications from e-commerce, logistics, FMCG and FMCD distribution, and intra-city mobility to demanding sectors like cement, steel, mining, and tarmac operations, alongside inter- and intra-city passenger transport.

This wide-ranging deployment reflects growing customer confidence in electric mobility solutions in real-world conditions and signals a decisive shift from pilot programmes to scaled, operational integration of EVs across use cases, Tata Motors said.

The company said over the past 12 months, it has significantly strengthened its electric commercial vehicle portfolio, introducing a new generation of eCVs tailored to varied duty cycles and operating conditions.