Will new US Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh hold key interest rates today? Here’s what investors should know

As per the official schedule, the US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting started on Tuesday, June 16 and is set to end on Wednesday, June 17, after which the central bank will release the outcome at 2:00 pm (ET) via a press release.

The June monetary policy meeting marks the first FOMC meeting for the new Chairman, Kevin Warsh, who was sworn in back in May 2026, after former Chairman Jerome Powell’s term of service came to an end.

After his swearing in, Chairman Kevin Warsh reiterated the US Fed’s stance of the dual mandate to maintain price stability while generating maximum employment for the US economy.

When and where to watch US Fed meeting outcome?

Chairman Kevin Warsh-led the US Fed’s FOMC is set to announce the outcome of the two-day policy meeting at 2:00 pm (ET) on June 17, which is 11:30 pm (IST) for Indian investors.

The FOMC outcome release will be followed by a press conference where Kevin Warsh will address the media starting from 2:30 pm (ET), which is 12:00 am (IST), on Wednesday midnight.

Will Kevin Warsh hold rates today?

US-based major market exchanges operator, CME Group’s FedWatch data, suggests that the experts are predicting that there is a 99.6% probability of the Federal Reserve keeping the key benchmark interest rates for the US economy unchanged at the range of 3.50% to 3.75%.

However, the data also suggests that the 0.4% experts are expecting that the US Fed’s FOMC will increase the key interest rates to the range of 3.75% to 4% in the meeting outcome on June 17.

“Fed meeting today remains crucial. Markets are expecting no rate change, but the Fed’s messaging could move overall markets,” said experts from CoinSwitch Markets Desk

Although the market expectations are around keeping the interest rates on hold this time, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut the rates by 25 basis points at least once in the calendar year 2026.

With the rising inflation in the US economy amid a resilient job market, rising domestic prices due to the impact of the West Asia conflict and supply chain disruptions are likely to set the stage for a rate hike in the future.

Inflation & Labour market snapshot

The US Bureau of Labour Statistics data showed that the US retail inflation remained at an elevated level, rising to 4.2% in the 12 months ending May 2026, from its earlier 3.8% levels in April 2026.

Since the beginning of the US-Iran conflict in West Asia, the CPI inflation in the United States has been on an upward trend amid the rising cost of energy sources and higher import costs.

In May 2026, the data showed that communication, airline fares, medical care, personal care, and recreation activities witnessed a rise in prices, while others, like motor vehicle insurance, household furnishings and operations, and new vehicles witnessed a decrease in the period.

The energy index prices in the US advanced 23.5% as of the 12 months ending May 2026, while the food index prices rose 3.1% over the last year.

Labour Bureau data also showed that the total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 172,000 in May 2026, with gains in sectors like leisure and hospitality, local government, and health care, while the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3%.

US Fed April policy outcome

In the April 2026 FOMC policy outcome, the US Federal Reserve decided to keep the key interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50-3.75% as inflation concerns remained in the market at the time.

The 12 members of the FOMC meeting highlighted that the inflationary concerns for the US economy remain elevated due to the rise in global energy prices in the market amid the ongoing conflict in West Asia.

The US Fed also said that the economic indicators as of the April meeting suggested that the economic activity in the United States was expanding at a “solid pace,” while the job growth in the economy remained low with a marginal change in the unemployment rates.

Although the United States and Iran have agreed to a peace agreement, which will reopen the key maritime trading route, the Strait of Hormuz, the global market investors await complete normalcy before expecting the central bank to actually decide its interest rate way forward after analysing the incoming economic indicators.