Trade setup for Sep 17: Can NIFTY50 defend June low of 23,077 on Thursday?

GIFT NIFTY futures fell 56 points as the dollar index climbed over 100 after the rate hike, indicating a muted start for NIFTY50 on Thursday.

Brent crude futures extended their decline on Thursday, falling below the $105 per barrel level after reports indicated that Saudi Arabia could start half of its east-west pipeline within a few days, and make it fully operational in six weeks.

The US benchmark indices closed sharply lower on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by 25 basis points. The Dow Jones shed over 600 points, and the S&P 500 fell 0.4%. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ 100 closed flat. The US 10Y yields surged back above 5% after the Fed signalled more hikes to contain inflation this year.

The Asian markets opened flat-to-positive on Thursday morning after the US Fed announced a rate hike for the first time since 2023. The Japanese Nikkei surged 100 points, ahead of the Bank of Japan’s policy decision on Friday, while the KOSPI traded flat with marginal gains.

NIFTY50 chart summary

NIFTY50 staged a small but smart recovery from 23,100 levels on Wednesday. The index continued to trade below the hourly 20 and 50 EMA levels, extending its short-term bearish stance. On the daily charts, the index made a doji candlestick pattern, indicating indecision over the direction of the index.

Meanwhile, the index bounced back a little from the June 2025 lows on the RSI of 22 to 27, but continues to remain in the oversold zone. Going forward, the 23,077- 23,100 range will remain a pivotal support zone for the NIFTY50, with immediate resistance at 23,300.

NIFTY50 open interest summary

The open interest data for the upcoming weekly expiry now indicates skewness towards bulls, as 23,000-23,200 puts witnessed strong open interest addition, indicating a limited downside till 23,000 for NIFTY50 in this weekly expiry. On the flip side, the 23,400 calls witnessed unwinding of open interest, indicating room for upside till 23,500, which acts as near-term resistance.