Trade setup for Sept 15: Open interest data indicates 23,300 as crucial support ahead of expiry

GIFT NIFTY futures indicate a positive start for NIFTY50 on the weekly expiry day. The index is expected to remain in focus amid the volatility in crude oil prices. Meanwhile, the global headwinds will continue to dominate investor sentiment in Tuesday’s trading session.

The US markets closed in the red on Monday as investor pessimism increased ahead of the Federal Reserve policy meeting starting today. The Dow Jones and the S&P500 fell over 0.5%, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 fell 0.8%, the most amongst the US benchmark indices.

The US 10Y yields crossed 5% for the first time since 2007, hitting two-decade high levels on Monday. Elevated yields increased the probability of a rate hike in the coming policy meeting.

Brent crude oil prices continued to hover near $107 per barrel as elevated tensions in the Middle East region maintained the supply disruptions.

The Asian benchmark indices opened in the green on Tuesday after falling as much as 3% on Monday. The Japanese Nikkei surged 400 points, and Korean KOSPI traded near flat lines.

NIFTY50 chart summary

The NIFTY50 ended the preceding week with declines of more than 2%, staging a recovery from its June 2026 low. Ahead of Tuesday's weekly expiry, the broader structure continues to favor the bears. While the index attempted a minor rebound on the hourly timeframe, it met immediate supply around the 20 EMA near 23,450.

On the daily chart, the 20 and 50 EMAs are positioned at 23,898 and 24,039, respectively, reflecting a substantial divergence between spot levels and key moving averages. This technical setup points toward a phase of time-wise consolidation, maintained with an underlying negative bias.

NIFTY50 open interest summary

Ahead of the weekly expiry, the open interest data indicates a bias towards the put side as the 23,200 to 23,300 puts witnessed a strong open interest addition on Friday, indicating limited downside for the expiry session. The 23,300 puts held the highest open interest, indicating strong support. On the flip side, the 23,800 calls held the highest open interest, indicating near-term resistance for the NIFTY50.