Vedanta share price nosedives over 8% post Q3 earnings; what investors need to know

Vedanta Q3 FY26 Earnings

Mining major Vedanta Ltd on Thursday reported a 60% jump in consolidated profit after tax (PAT) at ₹7,807 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, on the back of strong base metal prices.

The company had posted a consolidated PAT of ₹4,876 crore in the year-ago period.

The consolidated revenue from operations of the company during the quarter rose 19% to ₹45,899 crore over ₹38,526 crore in the year-ago period.

The company's alumina production rose 57% year-on-year (YoY) to 7,94,000 tonnes, while cast metal aluminium production stood at 6,20,000 tonnes, marginally higher than a year ago.

At Zinc India, mined metal production increased 4% to 2,76,000 tonnes.

The mined metal production at Zinc International also increased 28% YoY to 59,000 tonnes.

What management said

"Q3 FY26 has been a landmark quarter for Vedanta, delivering our highest-ever EBITDA of ₹15,171 crore, with two of our businesses achieving their best-ever financial results," Vedanta Executive Director Arun Misra said.

"Aluminium posted its strongest EBITDA margin of $1,268 per tonne, supported by record alumina and aluminium production. Zinc India recorded its highest-ever quarterly EBITDA of ₹6,064 crore, driven by record mined and refined metal output, with silver contributing 44% of overall profit," Misra added.

The company's net debt stood at ₹60,624 crore, and gross debt stood at ₹80,709 crore as of December 31, 2025.

"We are now entering an exciting phase of growth and value unlocking, creating long-term value for all our stakeholders," Vedanta Chief Financial Officer Ajay Goel said.

Vedanta is one of the leading producers of metals, oil & gas, critical minerals, power, and technology in the world.

What CITI and JP Morgan say

Analysts at Citi said Vedanta’s Q3 EBITDA rose 34% year-on-year and 31% quarter-on-quarter, driven mainly by stronger commodity prices, higher volumes, favourable foreign exchange movements, and lower costs.

Citi noted that parent leverage remains at comfortable levels and highlighted potential upside in aluminium prices, with its FY27 LME estimate at $3,425 per tonne versus the current spot price of around $3,250.

The firm also pointed to aluminium and alumina volume growth, further cost reductions, and the likely completion of the demerger by Q1 FY27. Citi estimates Vedanta’s FY26 dividend at ₹40 per share, of which ₹23 per share has already been paid.

JP Morgan said Vedanta’s Q3 FY26 EBITDA was 2–5% above its estimates and Bloomberg consensus, while net debt-to-EBITDA improved sequentially to 1.23x from 1.37x in Q2.

The financial services firm added that capacity expansion projects remain largely on track, with ramp-ups underway at the Balco smelter (435 kt) and Lanjigarh alumina refinery’s Train-2.

The Sijimali bauxite mine and Ghogarpalli coal mine are expected to be commissioned in the first and second halves of FY27, respectively, following minor delays.

Vedanta is targeting April 1 as the effective date for its demerger, with listings of the demerged entities expected between mid- and end-May.