Reliance Q4 results: O2C weakness, Jio growth, margins in focus

Oil-to-telecom conglomerate Reliance Industries will announce its March quarter results on Friday, April 24. Experts believe Reliance is expected to report muted Q4 earnings impacted by weakness in the oil-to-chemicals (O2C) and retail businesses. However, the telecom business could perform well.

As per experts, Reliance Industries’ consolidated Q4 revenue could range between ₹2.80 and ₹2.85 lakh crore, rising 7% to 9% YoY and 6% to 8% on a sequential basis. The company reported revenue of ₹2.64 lakh crore in the previous quarter and ₹2.61 lakh crore in Q4FY25.

Net profit could rise by 3% to 5% compared to the previous quarter in the range of ₹19,300 to ₹19,650 crore, while it may remain flat on a yearly basis. The company reported a net profit attributable to owners at ₹19,407 crore in Q4FY25 and ₹18,645 in Q3FY26.

Furthermore, Reliance Industries’ consolidated EBITDA is expected to remain flat in the range of ₹45,100 to ₹45,400 crore mainly due to lower margins from the O2C segment. Reliance Jio is expected to report single-digit growth in revenue and net profit aided by surge in Average Revenue Per User (ARPU).

Investors will closely track Reliance Industries' Q4 results to gauge the performance of the retail, telecom and oil refining businesses. Management commentary on the overall business scenario and timeline for the Reliance Jio IPO will also be closely watched.

Ahead of the Q4 result announcement, Reliance Industries shares closed 1.3% lower at ₹1,343 on Thursday, April 23. The company's stock is down 14.4% so far this year amid volatility in crude oil prices and a sell-off in broader markets due to global geopolitical concerns.

Technical outlook

Reliance remains in a short-term downtrend, trading below its 20, 50 and 200 EMAs, indicating sustained bearish structure. The share price is currently consolidating near the ₹1,340 zone after a sharp decline, with ₹1,290 acting as a key support and ₹1,430–1,440 as a strong resistance cluster (near the 200 EMA).

The recent candles show a lack of follow-through on the upside, suggesting weak buying interest, while RSI hovering around 45 reflects neutral-to-bearish momentum. A breakdown below ₹1,290 could trigger further downside, whereas a decisive move above ₹1,400 is needed to signal any meaningful recovery.

Options outlook

The options market suggests that Reliance Industries could experience a price movement of approximately ±2.7%, based on an at-the-money (ATM) strike price of 1,340 for April 28 expiry.

To gain a more in-depth understanding of Reliance Industries' historical volatility, let’s analyse its price behaviour around earnings announcements.

Strategies based on options data

With the options market pricing in a potential move of ±2.7%, traders can look at volatility-based setups in Reliance Industries.

A long straddle suits traders expecting a sharp post-earnings move but with no clear directional bias. It involves buying both an at-the-money call and put of the same strike and expiry. The trade turns profitable if the move exceeds the ±2.7% implied range, with risk limited to the total premium paid.

On the other hand, a short straddle is suitable if you expect volatility to ease and price to remain rangebound after results. This involves selling an at-the-money call and put. The strategy works best if the stock stays within the implied ±2.7% range post earnings.