Meesho shares hit 20% upper circuit on analysts' positive views; stock jumps 95% from IPO issue price

The stock rallied as much as 20% (its upper circuit limit) to hit an all-time high of ₹216.34 on the NSE. The stock’s IPO issue price was ₹111.

The sharp rally in the stock was witnessed after UBS initiated coverage on the stock.

As per news reports, UBS said that Meesho's asset-light, negative working capital business model has also ensured positive cash flows, unlike other internet businesses.

Analysts at UBS further said that Meesho's model net merchandise value (NMV) CAGR is 30% over FY25-30e, with contribution margin (CM) and adjusted EBITDA margin (as a % of NMV) reaching 6.8% and 3.2% by FY30e.

UBS estimates Meesho's NMV to grow at 30% CAGR from FY25 to FY30, driven by annual transacting users (ATUs) growing from 199 million to 518 million over the same period and annual ordering frequency increasing from 9.2 to 14.7, while average order values (AOVs) decline from ₹274 to ₹233 as the company passes logistics efficiency into the ecosystem.

What is NMV in an e-commerce platform?

In an e-commerce platform, NMV stands for Net Merchandise Value.

NMV: Explained

NMV represents the total value of goods sold on the platform after deducting cancellations, returns, refunds, and discounts. It reflects the actual realised value of transactions rather than the gross headline number.

NMV = GMV − returns − cancellations − refunds − discounts

Why NMV matters

• The metric gives a more accurate picture of true sales performance

• It helps assess customer quality and order fulfilment

• It is often used by investors and analysts to evaluate platform efficiency and growth.

NMV vs GMV

GMV (Gross Merchandise Value): Total value of all orders placed

NMV: Value of orders that are successfully completed and retained

For example, if an e-commerce platform reports a GMV of ₹1,000 crore but ₹150 crore worth of orders are returned or cancelled, the NMV would be ₹850 crore.

Meesho IPO and listing details

Shares of the company on December 10 made a stellar debut on the stock exchanges NSE and BSE by listing with a premium of more than 46% against the issue price of ₹111.

The stock started trading at ₹162.50, up 46.40% from the issue price on the NSE. Later, it jumped 55.58% to ₹172.70.

On the BSE, the stock made its market debut at ₹161.20, registering a jump of 45.22%.

Taking into account today's all-time high level on the NSE, the scrip has rallied 74% from the issue price of ₹111.

Meesho IPO details

The initial public offering (IPO) of Meesho received 79.02 times subscription on the final day of the share sale.