MCX shares lost nearly 8% in a single day; should investors remain cautious ahead?

Multi-Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) shares lost nearly 8% during the trading session on Friday, May 29, with trading volumes surging past 19 million shares, triggering high volume losses across both stock exchanges.

MCX shares dropped nearly 8% during the intraday trading session to ₹2,906.20 on May 29, compared to ₹3,158.50 at the previous market close. Shares of MCX closed 6.4% lower at ₹2,954.50 after Friday’s trading session, according to the exchange data.

Experts predict a cautious approach ahead for MCX as the strong momentum from the Q4 results has likely worn off, despite elevated volatility across key commodities traded on the exchange.

What do UBS analysts say?

Analysts from the leading investment firm, UBS, said that MCX has left behind its peak earnings momentum, which was fuelled by the strong March quarter results for the financial year ended 2025-26.

“Peak earnings momentum is likely behind, elevated volatility across key commodities in recent months,” said the analysts.

However, the experts also highlighted that they are not worried about the market competition as of yet.

“Healthy Q1FY27-to-date volumes, albeit normalised from Q4 levels. Stock is trading at c.50x 1-year forward P/E, c10% higher than its historical average,” they said.

Looking ahead, UBS analysts said that they expect MCX to have limited upside with a strong volume run-rate already priced in for the stock.

MCX Q4 results snapshot

In the March quarter results, MCX posted a 291% jump in consolidated net profits to ₹529.77 crore, compared year-on-year with ₹135.46 crore in the same period a year ago, according to the NSE filing.

The commodities exchange’s revenue from core operations surged 205% to ₹888.94 crore in the fourth quarter, compared with ₹291.33 crore in the same quarter of the previous fiscal year.

The company’s operational level, earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) expanded 271% to ₹703 crore from ₹189 crore, while the EBITDA margin improved to 76% from 59% a year ago.

MCX inclusion in MSCI

Commodities exchange provider, MCX shares, were added along with three other companies to the MSCI Global Standard Index, with an expected investment inflow of $373 million.

As the global benchmark indices are widely tracked by large passive funds, additions and removals of stocks from them are likely to bring in high volatility during the trading session, while bringing in fresh capital for additions and outflows for removals.

Effective May 29, MCX shares, along with other stocks like Federal Bank, National Aluminium Co., and Indian Bank, were added to the MSCI index. While others like Hyundai Motors India, Jubilant Foodworks, Kalyan Jewellers India, and RVNL were removed on Friday.

MCX share price trend

MCX share price has delivered more than 848% returns on its investment in the last five years, over 955% gains in the last three years, and more than 123% returns in the past one year, according to NSE data.

So far in 2026, the company’s stock has gained over 33%, but has been flat in the past one month period. MCX stock was trading 10% lower over the last five market sessions.

MCX share price hit its 52-week high of ₹3,480 on May 21, 2026, while the 52-week low was at ₹1,278.10 on May 27, 2025, according to the exchange data. The company’s market capitalisation (m-cap) was at ₹74,942 crore as of Friday’s stock market session.