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  1. Kotak Mahindra Bank shares decline 5%; here’s what analysts said after Q4 earnings

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Kotak Mahindra Bank shares decline 5%; here’s what analysts said after Q4 earnings

SUMMARY

The country's fourth-largest private-sector lender by market capitalisation earned a net profit of ₹4,027 crore in Q4, marking an increase of 13% from ₹3,552 crore in the same period last year

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On a year-to-date basis, shares of Kotak Mahindra Bank have fallen 16%. Image: Shutterstock

On a year-to-date basis, shares of Kotak Mahindra Bank have fallen 16%. Image: Shutterstock

Kotak Mahindra Bank shares tumbled 5.3% to touch an intraday low of ₹363 apiece on Monday, May 4, as the private sector lender’s earnings failed to impress the market investors.

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At 11 AM, shares of Kotak Mahindra Bank were trading at ₹374.4 apiece on the National Stock Exchange, falling 2.32%.

Shares of the firm have gained 4% over a month, while they have tumbled 11% in the last six months. On a year-to-date basis, shares of Kotak Mahindra Bank have fallen 16%.

The lender has a total market capitalisation of ₹3.72 lakh crore, according to data on the NSE.

Kotak Mahindra Bank Q4 earnings

The country's fourth-largest private-sector lender by market capitalisation earned a net profit of ₹4,027 crore in the January-March quarter, marking an increase of 13% from ₹3,552 crore in the same period last year. The uptick in profit came on the back of sharply lower provisions for bad loans and an improvement in asset quality.

The bank's provisions for bad loans reduced by 43% to ₹516 crore as against ₹909 crore in the corresponding quarter last financial year.

For financial year 2025-26 (Q4FY26), its net profit declined 15% to ₹14,008 crore.

The Mumbai-based lender's net interest income or difference between interest earned on loans and expended on deposits rose 8% to ₹7,875 crore in the fourth quarter of financial year 2025-26, up from ₹7,284 crore in the year-ago period.

Net interest margin was 4.67% for Q4FY26 compared with 4.97% for Q4FY25 and 4.54% for Q4FY24.

Kotak Mahindra Bank's asset quality showed an improvement as its gross non-performing assets (NPAs), as a percentage of total advances, came in at 1.20% compared with 1.42% in the same period last year.

In absolute terms gross NPAs came in at ₹6,018 crore from ₹6,134 crore.

The bank's board announced a dividend of 65 paise per share.

Kotak Mahindra Bank's advances increased 16% year on year (YoY) to ₹4,96,009 crore as of March 31, 2026, from ₹4,26,909 crore as of March 31, 2025.

Here’s what the CEO said

According to a report by news agency Press Trust of India, Ashok Vaswani, managing director and chief executive officer of Kotak Mahindra Bank, said that the valuation of the IDBI Bank was too high and it would have been a hard deal to swallow.

"The bank evaluated every acquisition opportunity, including IDBI Bank, but found the valuation to be very, very high," Vaswani said during the post-earnings conference.

He noted that even the bids received by the government were below the reserve price, reflecting the gap between expectations and market appetite.

While the acquisition could have added scale, it was not a compelling or "slam dunk" strategic fit.

In February, the bank had clarified that it has not submitted a financial bid as part of the disinvestment process relating to IDBI Bank. The central government, along with Life Insurance Corporation of India, plans to sell a combined 60.7% stake in IDBI Bank as part of its privatisation drive.

What analysts said after Q4 FY26 earnings

Analysts at JPMorgan Chase said Kotak Mahindra Bank delivered a steady fourth quarter, largely in line with its estimates. They observed strong overall performance with better-than-expected results in net interest income, operating expenses, and loan loss provisions, but this was partly balanced out by lower non-interest income because of the closing of NDF positions and slower growth in card usage.

The analysts further added that the lender’s NII growth of 8.1% YoY was among the best in the large private bank peer group, while core margins remained stable sequentially, with reported margins rising on account of a day count benefit.

In a note on Monday, Nomura said the bank reported strong net interest margin delivery in Q4FY26, though it maintained a cautious outlook. It highlighted a sharp improvement in asset quality and raised its FY27–FY28 earnings estimates by around 2%, driven by lower credit costs and operating expenses. It expects return on assets and return on equity to improve to 2% and 12%, respectively, by FY28, supported by an estimated earnings CAGR of 18% over FY27–FY28.
Jefferies analysts said Kotak Mahindra Bank’s standalone Q4 profit was ahead of its estimates, aided by lower credit costs. However, it trimmed earnings estimates by 3–4%, factoring in lower margin guidance due to a higher cost of deposits, while valuing the stock at 14x FY27 estimated standalone adjusted PE.
Analysts at Bernstein said Kotak Mahindra Bank closed FY26 on a strong note, with a beat across most operating metrics. It also highlighted that NIM expanded by around 13 bps sequentially, the highest among the top four private sector banks, while credit costs normalised to 39 bps, down 25 bps year-on-year, supported by broad-based asset quality improvement.
UBS in a note on Monday said the bank’s Q4 profit beat was driven by higher pre-provision operating profit and lower credit costs. It added that at current valuations of around 1.5x the March 2027 estimated price-to-book value, compared with 1.5x–1.9x for private peers, the risk-reward appears favourable, supported by expected acceleration in pre-provision operating profit growth, improving asset quality, range-bound margins, and momentum in non-lending business.

About The Author

Ahana Chatterjee - image.jpg
Ahana Chatterjee is a business journalist with 7 years of experience across several leading news platforms. At Upstox, she covers stock markets and corporate news.

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