ITC hits 52-week low even as broader markets rebound; stock down over 27% this year

ITC shares saw selling pressure today despite a rebound in broader markets. The diversified conglomerate that sells cigarettes, FMCG products, and paperboards saw its share price decline 0.5% today to hit a 52-week low of ₹288.7 per share on NSE.

So far in March 2026, ITC shares have declined nearly 7% and are down over 27% year-to-date. ITC stock got off to a weak start in 2026 after the Indian government implemented a significant cigarette price hike by introducing a new 40% GST rate plus specific additional excise duties (₹2,050 to ₹8,500 per 1,000 sticks) starting from February 1, 2026.

The cigarette business accounts for over 40% of the ITC Q3FY26 revenue. As a result, the new price hike was negative for the company and could hit its volumes.

The company took prompt action and implemented price hikes across its cigarette portfolio following additional excise duties. As per investment firm UBS, ITC has adopted a three-pronged pricing strategy to protect volumes.

• Same quality, same price, slightly smaller length: A new 64mm Gold Flake at ₹9.5 per stick (same quality as 69mm Goldflake premium), and a shorter 74mm KSFT variant at ₹17.5 per stick (corresponding to 84mm KSFT Goldflake King).
• Same quality, same length, higher price: The premium 84mm KSFT price increased from ₹17 to ₹24 per stick.
• Same quality, same length, higher price, partially subsidised: The highest volume segment (Goldflake 69mm) has been priced up from ₹9.5 to ₹11.5.

Overall, ITC has ensured a same-price option across all sensitive variants

As per UBS, this new strategy should largely limit volume impact (barring trade destocking), but this pricing strategy leads to a mid-single digit decline in Net Realisable Value (NRV).

Global investment firm Goldman Sachs has also shared its outlook on ITC. As per Goldman Sachs channel checks, ITC has taken the first set of price increases in its cigarette business, post the sharp cigarette tax increase, which was announced by the government. Price hikes are in the range of 20-40% across key brands.

As per Goldman Sachs, these price hikes are lower than what is needed to pass on the impact of the cigarette tax increases, which were implemented from 1st February 2026, which implies ITC would be seeing a hit to EBIT per cigarette stick.

As per experts, ITC shares are going through a similar phase as witnessed in 2019 and 2020 when the stock declined 15.6% and 12.07% repectively to hit a low of 197.2 per share. Investors should closely monitor the upcoming quarterly earnings of the company for more clues and busienss growth. Segment-wise revenue and volume growth will be key parameters to watch out.