IndiGo share price declines over 18% since US-Iran conflict; what lies ahead amid geopolitical tensions?

Shares of IndiGo’s parent, InterGlobe Aviation, India’s largest airline operator, have lost more than 18% since the beginning of the West Asia conflict between the United States and Iran, which has driven up oil prices in the global market.

With the rising cost of jet fuel or aviation turbine fuel (ATF) in the past few weeks, investors are acting cautiously and trying to factor in the dynamic geopolitical situation with the outlook for the aviation industry in the backdrop of high fuel prices.

IATA (International Air Transport Association) data collected from provider Platts showed that the weekly average prices of jet fuel surged up to 58.4% in the first week of the conflict and rose 11.2% to $175 per barrel (bbl) in the second week ended March 13.

For an airline company spending a significant share on fuel, the rising input costs due to the higher price of jet fuel have the potential to weigh on the profits or operating margins in a particular period.

Although the latest data for the week ending March 20 is yet to be released, the jet fuel prices have been on an upward trend since the first attacks on February 28 on Iran.

As ATF is an engineered form of high-quality blended kerosene-based fuel, it is derived from processing crude oil, the prices of which were impacted due to the supply concerns via the Strait of Hormuz amid the frequent attacks from both sides on key energy resources.

Weak outlook in the near-term?

US-based global investment banking giant Goldman Sachs, in its recent note, said that the company will see an impact due to higher fuel costs.

Along with the higher fuel costs, Goldman Sachs expects that the weak air traffic from the West Asian countries is weakening the near-term outlook of the airline stock.

The firm also expects IndiGo’s EBITDAR (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, Amortisation, and Rent/Restructuring) will be around ₹13,700 crore for FY2025-26.

The company’s EBITDAR for FY2026-27 is expected to be at ₹15,900 crore, and for the year 2027-28, it is expected to be at ₹244 billion, as per the note.

“Industry consolidation likely amid supply constraints… Net cash balance sheet is seen as a key strength… and market share gains are likely as weaker players exit,” said Goldman Sachs.

What do financials suggest?

IndiGo’s consolidated financial statements for the third quarter showed that the airline’s net profit had plummeted by over 77% to ₹549 crore, compared YoY with ₹2,448 crore in the same period a year ago.

The airline’s revenue from core operations rose 6% to ₹23,472 crore in the October to December quarter, compared to ₹22,110 crore in the same period a year ago. With the expenses rising 9.6% for the quarter, the airline also recorded a one-time labour code and flight disruption impact of ₹1,546.5 crore on the financials for the quarter.

The operational disruptions were due to the updated flight duty norms, where the company recorded unforeseen operational challenges that weighed down the profits for the quarter.

IndiGo stock price trend

IndiGo’s parent InterGlobe Aviation's shares closed 4.8% lower at ₹3,950 apiece on the NSE on Monday, compared to ₹4,149.10 at the previous market close.

Shares of IndiGo have delivered stock market investors more than 122% returns in five years and over 106% returns over the last three years, as per the exchange data. However, the airline stock has dropped 21% in one year.

On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, the airline stock has lost 22.71% so far in 2026 and is down 18.76% over the last one month. IndiGo shares were trading 6.44% lower in the last five sessions on the stock market.

IndiGo stock hit its 52-week high of ₹6,232.50 on August 18, 2025, while the 52-week low for the airline stock was ₹3,895.20 on March 23, 2026, according to NSE data.

The company’s market capitalisation (M-Cap) stood at over ₹1.52 lakh crore as of the trading close on Monday, March 23.