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  1. Hero MotoCorp shares decline: Check what JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs analysts said post Q4 earnings

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Hero MotoCorp shares decline: Check what JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs analysts said post Q4 earnings

SUMMARY

The company’s revenue from operations climbed 29% to ₹12,780 crore in the reporting quarter as against ₹9,939 crore in Q4 FY25

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Hero MotoCorp said its FY26 performance was driven by steady growth in its core ICE business. | Image: Shutterstock

Hero MotoCorp said its FY26 performance was driven by steady growth in its core ICE business. | Image: Shutterstock

Hero MotoCorp shares surged as much as 3.3% to touch an intraday high of ₹5,281 apiece on Wednesday, May 6, as investors cheered its March quarter earnings.

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The auto major reported an increase of 29.6% in its standalone net profit at ₹1,401 crore for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 (Q4 FY26), as compared to ₹1,081 crore in the same quarter of the previous financial year.

The company’s revenue from operations climbed 29% to ₹12,780 crore in the reporting quarter as against ₹9,939 crore in Q4 FY25.

Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) rose 30% to ₹1,840 crore in the quarter under review, as opposed to ₹1,416 crore in Q4 FY25. The EBITDA margin improved marginally to 14.39% in the Q4 FY26 in contrast to 14.24% YoY.

For Q4 FY26, Hero MotoCorp reported sales of 17.14 lakh motorcycles and scooters in Q4 FY26, marking a 24% increase compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous fiscal.

Hero MotoCorp share price

Though shares of Hero MotoCorp opened in the green, it later lost momentum. The stock slipped 3% to touch an intraday low of ₹4,950 per share so far on Wednesday.

At 11:10 AM, shares of Hero MotoCorp were trading at ₹4,997 apiece on the National Stock Exchange, falling 2.19%.

In a month, shares of the firm have fallen 2.2%, while for six months’ time, they have tumbled over 6%. From the beginning of the year, Hero MotoCorp shares have lost 15%.

The company has a market capitalisation of ₹99,964.85 crore.

Shares of the company had touched their one-year high of ₹6,388.50 apiece on December 5, 2025, while their 52-week low of ₹3,725 was hit on May 2, 2025.

Here’s what analysts said

Analysts at Citigroup said Hero MotoCorp reported Q4 EBITDA slightly ahead of estimates, while PAT was in line due to lower other income. They noted that demand has remained robust following GST cuts, with efforts to expand market share in scooters and EVs gradually gaining traction, while cost-reduction initiatives are supporting margins. However, they flagged a potentially inflationary macro environment and any adverse rural income trends as key risks.
Further, Goldman Sachs analysts said the company’s Q4 performance was broadly in line with estimates, with sequential improvement in average selling prices driven by a richer product mix and price hikes. They highlighted commodity inflation and supply chain stability as key monitorables while also keeping an eye on the FY27 market share outlook and export trends.
Analysts at Jefferies and JPMorgan Chase noted that Q4 EBITDA and PAT grew around 30–31% year-on-year, in line with expectations, supported by 24% volume growth and a 3% quarter-on-quarter rise in ASP. They added that pricing actions and fixed cost management helped offset commodity pressures, with no material negative trends observed, while sustainability of industry growth, market share, and commodity costs remain key areas to watch going forward.

FY26 earnings

For FY26, Hero MotoCorp reported total sales of 64.69 lakh motorcycles and scooters, registering a 10% increase over the previous year. Revenue from operations rose to ₹46,830 crore from ₹40,756 crore, reflecting a growth of 15% over the previous fiscal.

The company’s EBITDA for FY26 stood at ₹6,871 crore compared to ₹5,868 crore, marking a 17% increase. Profit before tax (before exceptional items) came in at ₹7,091 crore, up 16%, while net profit after tax stood at ₹5,268 crore, reflecting a growth of 14% year-on-year.

Hero MotoCorp said its FY26 performance was driven by steady growth in its core ICE business, supported by market share gains across key segments, with broad-based demand in the 100cc–125cc, scooter, and premium motorcycle categories, aided by successful product refreshes and its highest-ever festive season.

The company's global business closed FY26 at an all-time high, with 40% year-on-year growth, driven by consistent performance across key international markets.

The Harley-Davidson business also delivered 26% year-on-year growth in its dispatch volume.

Commenting on the performance, Harshavaradhan Chitale, Chief Executive Officer, Hero MotoCorp, said, “FY26 marks a defining chapter for Hero MotoCorp." Our record performance reflects not only our sustained leadership as the world’s largest manufacturer of motorcycles and scooters for 25 consecutive years, but also our commitment to defining the future of mobility. This growth was broad-based, driven by a strong premium and EV product portfolio and momentum across both domestic and global markets.”

Dividend details

The board of directors of Hero MotoCorp has recommended a final dividend of ₹75 per share (3,750% on the face value of ₹2 per equity share), subject to shareholders’ approval at its upcoming 43rd Annual General Meeting (AGM). The company said the dividend, once approved, will be paid within 30 days of its declaration at the AGM.

The total dividend for FY26 amounts to ₹185 per equity share, representing a payout of 9,250%, the company said.

“As we look ahead, we are encouraged by the supportive government policies, positive consumer loyalty and sentiment, and the accelerating shift towards electrification and premiumisation. These factors position us well for FY27, as we continue to lead the industry’s transition towards sustainable and innovative mobility solutions,” said Chitale.

About The Author

Ahana Chatterjee - image.jpg
Ahana Chatterjee is a business journalist with 7 years of experience across several leading news platforms. At Upstox, she covers stock markets and corporate news.

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