BPCL, HPCL: OMC stocks fall up to 30% in March; here is what technical charts and fundamentals suggest

The OMC (Oil Marketing Companies) stocks are buzzing in trade on Wednesday after crude oil prices fell below $100 per barrel on easing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. The stocks have faced extreme selling pressure in the past month after crude oil prices skyrocketed from $70 per barrel to over $120 per barrel in just few trading sessions. A sharp rise in crude oil prices typically compresses the margins for OMCs.

Consequently, the oil-sensitive stocks witnessed a sharp decline in share prices. The NIFTY Oil & Gas index fell 12.5% since the war outbreak of conflict in the Middle East and is currently trading 11.5% lower from the record high levels seen in January 2026. Following this sharp one-sided correction, here is how technical charts look for major OMCs

BPCL

The Bharat Petroleum share price has fallen over 26% on a MTD (month-to-date) basis, as the rising crude oil prices and potential supply shortages soured investor sentiment. The stock briefly fell below its 200-day EMA level of ₹330 and witnessed multiple bearish crossovers on the daily charts. The relative strength index (RSI) of the stock currently stands at 26, suggesting strong bear grip around the stock.

HPCL

Similar to its peers, Hindustan Petroleum's charts show extreme bearishness following a nearly 33% fall from the record highs touched in January 2026. The shares are up nearly 7% over the last two trading sessions, providing some relief from the selling pressure. The stocks 200-EMA stands at ₹419, underscoring prevailing bearish trend.

Indian Oil Corporation

The Indian Oil Corporation shares have fallen nearly 25% from record high levels touched on February 27, just before the conflict began. The shares are currently traded 9% below their 200-day EMA level of ₹152 apiece, signalling continued weakness in the stock price.

Fundamental outlook

On the fundamental level, the sharp rise in oil prices is expected to hit OMCs with $1.5 billion in monthly losses at $107 per barrel for Brent crude oil, according to Morgan Stanley. After the recent fall, major OMCs trade at low single-digit valuations on TTM earnings. The Bharat Petroleum share price currently trades at 4.9x price-to-earnings, below its 5-year median of 7.5x. Hindustan Petroleum's share price traded near a 4.69x PE ratio, closer to its long-term median valuation.

Similarly, the Indian Oil Corporation shares also traded near their long-term median valuation at a 5.5x price-to-earnings ratio. Analysts and experts believe while the recent rally in crude oil prices could lead to rerating of these stocks due to impact on operating margins and cash flow.

Supply shortages could further add pressure on marketing margins as the retail selling prices have remained unchanged despite the sharp rise in global crude oil prices.