Airtel Q4 results: Net profit may decline by over 30% YoY; key focus on ARPU growth and dividend

Telecom service provider, Bharti Airtel will announce its fourth quarter results on Wednesday, May 13, 2025. According to experts, Bharti Airtel is expected to report strong quarterly earnings, with double-digit growth in revenue and net profit.

Meanwhile, Bharti Airtel’s Q4 consolidated revenue may increase between 15% and 17% YoY in a range of ₹55,200 to ₹56,100 crore aided by robust subscriber additions, better subscriber mix, rising 5G data consumption and growth in African business. However, profitability could take a hit as net profit is expected to decline by 30% to 32% YoY to range between ₹7,490 to ₹7,530 crore.

Bharti Airtel reported revenue of ₹47,876 crore in the same quarter last year and ₹53,982 crore in Q3FY26. Meanwhile, its net profit stood at ₹11,022 crore in Q4FY25, primarily driven by a one-time tax gain of around ₹5,913 crore during that period and ₹6,630 crore in previous quater.

Experts believe, Airtel ARPU could remain flat in the range of ₹256 to ₹259 impacted by fewer days during the March quarter. During the Q4 results, investors and traders will look forward to key monitorable like Airtel’s market share gain, growth in African business, ARPU growth and new subscriber addition. Impact of currency fluctuations will also be monitored closely along with final dividend announcement for FY26.

Ahead of the Q4 result announcement, Bharti Airtel shares closed at ₹1,762. So far this year, Bharti Airtel stock is down 16.5% amid sell-off in broader markets.

Technical outlook

Bharti Airtel has slipped below its key support zone of ₹1,779, indicating short-term weakness in the stock. The price is trading below its 20-day, 50-day and 200-day EMAs, which suggests that the broader structure has turned bearish.

The immediate hurdle is now around ₹1,779–1,800. Unless the stock reclaims this zone, the trend may remain weak. On the upside, a stronger recovery will be visible only above the ₹1,900–1,906 zone, which also aligns near the 200-day EMA.

Options outlook

Looking at Bharti Airtel’s option chain for the 26 May expiry, the at-the-money strike stands at 1,760. As of 4 February, the combined premium of the call and put at this strike was ₹77.

This implies that the options market is pricing in a potential move of around ±4.4% in either direction by expiry.

Before looking at possible options strategies, it is important to first analyse how Bharti Airtel has typically moved around its earnings over the past eleven quarters.

Options strategies ahead of the earnings

If you expect Bharti Airtel's share price to move sharply after it announces its earnings, but you're not sure which way it will move, a long straddle could be a good option. In this strategy, a trader buys both the at-the-money (ATM) call and put options. The approach is straightforward, if the stock moves more than ±4.4%, the strategy will make profit.

Conversely, perhaps if you believe that Bharti Airtel will remain range-bound after the results are announced, with all the volatility already priced in. In that case, the short straddle might be the right strategy. It involves selling the same ATM call and put, and pocket the premium if the stock stays within that ±4.4% range.Meanwhile, for those anticipating a continuation of bearish momentum can consider bear put spreads.

Disclaimer:

Derivatives trading must be done only by traders who fully understand the risks associated with them and strictly apply risk mechanisms like stop losses. The information is only for educational purposes. We do not recommend any particular stock, securities or strategies for trading. The securities mentioned in this article are purely illustrative and not recommendations. Investors are advised to do their own research before investing.