IMD forecasts below-normal rainfall at 90% of normal as El Nino threat looms large

India is likely to receive below-normal southwest monsoon rainfall this year at 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday.

In its updated long-range forecast for the June-September monsoon season, the meteorological department warned that the development of El Nino conditions during the season could weigh on rainfall across large parts of the country.

The IMD said seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is expected to be 90% of the LPA, with a model error of plus or minus 4%.

The forecast indicates an 84% probability of below-normal or deficient rainfall during the four-month monsoon season, which is crucial for India's agriculture sector, replenishing reservoirs and supporting rural incomes.

"The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ±4%, indicating that below-normal rainfall is most likely over the country as a whole during the monsoon season (June to September), 2026," the IMD said.

The weather office said rainfall is likely to be normal over Northeast India but below normal over Central India, South Peninsular India and Northwest India.

Rainfall over the Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ), which covers most of the country's rain-fed agricultural regions, is also expected to remain below normal.

According to the IMD, below-normal seasonal rainfall is likely over most parts of the country, except some areas of Northwest and Northeast India, eastern parts of the south peninsula, adjoining east-central regions and isolated pockets of East India, where normal to above-normal rainfall is expected.

In June, the first month of the monsoon season, rainfall over the country as a whole is projected to remain below normal, at less than 92% of the LPA.

The forecast also pointed to a warmer-than-normal June, with above-normal maximum temperatures likely over most parts of the country and above-normal minimum temperatures expected across large areas.

The IMD warned of above-normal heatwave days during June over many parts of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh, besides isolated regions of Maharashtra, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.

However, Rajasthan and Jharkhand are likely to witness fewer heatwave days than normal.

The IMD said neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are currently transitioning towards El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

"The latest climate model forecasts indicate that the El Nino conditions are likely to develop during the southwest monsoon season," it said.

El Nino is generally associated with weaker monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent.

Meanwhile, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean and are expected to continue through the monsoon season, according to the forecast.

The IMD underlined that below-normal rainfall could pose challenges for agriculture, water availability, hydropower generation and ecosystem sustainability, while increasing risks of drought, heat stress and pressure on drinking water resources.

Downside risks to agriculture

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its annual report released on Friday, also said that the agriculture sector faces downside risks in 2026-27 from a likely El Nino-driven weak monsoon.

"The outlook for the agriculture sector in 2026-27 remains contingent upon the progress and distribution of the south-west monsoon. The likelihood of El Nino conditions poses downside risks to agriculture output," the RBI said in its Annual Report 2025-26.

The RBI, however, noted that rain-inducing positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are likely to emerge towards the latter part of the monsoon season and could partly offset the adverse effects of El Nino.

The weather office will issue its forecast for July rainfall in the last week of June.