RBI MPC meeting June 2026: No EMI relief in sight as repo rate likely to stay unchanged

According to SBI Research Report, the central bank is likely to hold rates amid a highly uncertain global environment. The report notes, “We expect the RBI to maintain status quo against a volatile backdrop.”

According to rating agency Icra, the RBI is unlikely to rush into hiking interest rates immediately, offering temporary relief to borrowers. However, if inflation remains elevated for longer, a rate hike later this year, possibly in December, cannot be ruled out.

"We don't think that the MPC (monetary policy committee) will go in for a rate hike very soon," Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at Icra, said, PTI reported.

Why RBI is likely to stay on hold

SBI Research Report highlights that inflation risks remain elevated despite strong growth momentum. It expects the inflation trajectory to stay above 5% for the next few quarters, driven by global oil prices and currency weakness.

The report adds that “growth-inflation dynamics continue to remain in a delicate balance,” making it difficult for the RBI to shift towards rate cuts in the near term.

Geopolitical tensions, rising crude oil prices, and pressure on the rupee are also adding to the policy dilemma.

What this means for borrowers

If the RBI maintains its current stance, borrowing costs are expected to remain elevated.

• Home loan EMIs are unlikely to come down soon

• Personal loans and credit products will remain expensive.

The report also flags broader macro pressures, stating that “an indecisive currency and global uncertainty need counter-cyclical measures and intent.”

It further warns that imported inflation risks are rising due to both oil prices and rupee depreciation, which could keep consumer inflation sticky.

With inflation risks still present and global uncertainty high, the RBI is expected to stay cautious. For borrowers, EMI relief is unlikely in the near term.

RBI MPC meeting June 2026 date and time

What is the current repo rate?

The Reserve Bank of India uses the repo rate as its main monetary policy tool to control inflation, manage liquidity, and support economic growth. As per the latest MPC decision in February 2026, the repo rate stands at 5.25%.