India’s gold trend in FY26: SBI Research flags 6 key insights on rising import value

Gold in India is becoming more expensive, but not necessarily more popular. SBI Research data shows a sharp mismatch between rising import value and falling volumes, pointing to a price-driven surge rather than stronger demand.

India’s gold trend: 6 things SBI Research notes

SBI Research notes that “the import of gold in recent trends has diverged in volume and value terms.”

The report states that “the trends in value show a sharp rise from $57.9 billion in FY25 to $72.4 billion in FY26.”

It adds that “the gold imports have shown a decreasing trend since FY24, reducing by approximately 5% in FY25 and FY26.”

SBI Research explains that “this shows that overall import bill has been dominated by price effect while volume effect is negative for the last two years.”

The report flags macroeconomic concern, stating that “the impact of gold on Current Account Deficit (CAD) is a matter of concern.”

It further adds that “the decomposition of CAD both as per cent of GDP and in weighted contribution terms shows that the impact of gold imports has varied over time.”

On import duties, SBI Research warns that “imposition of duty has its consequences in diverting the physical supply to grey channels.”

It also notes that “this is driven by higher spread between the offshore and onshore price of gold, which creates an arbitrage opportunity.”

The prices of gold have risen from USD 76,617.48/KG in FY25 to USD 99,825.38/KG in FY26.

The government in the 2024-25 budget had cut customs duty on gold to 6 per cent to boost the domestic gems and jewellery industry, curb illegal smuggling, and bring down local prices.

India had, in 2022, raised gold import tax to 15 per cent to check CAD (capital account deficit) amid a falling rupee due to the Russia-Ukraine war that began in February 2022.