Week ahead: Crude oil prices, Q4 earnings, FIIs activity among key market triggers to watch

Indian markets ended a volatile, holiday-shortened week on a positive note. Sentiment remained cautious as rising crude oil prices, continued FII selling and pressure on the rupee kept investors on edge. Still, benchmark indices managed to close higher, supported by stock specific action.

For the week, the SENSEX gained 249 points, or 0.32%, to close at 76,913, while the NIFTY50 rose 99 points, or 0.41%, to settle at 23,997. Broader markets performed better, with the NIFTY Midcap 150 up 0.5% and the NIFTY Smallcap 250 index gaining 1.9%. On a monthly basis, both benchmark indices advanced around 7% in April.

Sectorally, the trend was mixed. Oil & Gas , Pharma and IT gaining around 3% each. Meanwhile, PSU and Private banks were under pressure falling 3% and 1% respectively.

The rupee was also in focus during the week. It touched a fresh record low of 95.33 against the US dollar on April 30, before recovering slightly to close at 94.92. The pressure came as Brent crude prices stayed elevated and the US Fed’s hawkish tone kept global risk appetite under check.

On the domestic front, the Q4 earnings season will remain in focus. Key companies scheduled to report their results include AB Capital, Ambuja Cements, BHEL, Godrej Properties, Manappuram Finance, Coforge, Mahindra & Mahindra, Marico, Bajaj Auto, Paytm, Policybazaar and Polycab. These results will drive stock-specific action and offer cues on demand, margins and management commentary for FY26.

Market breadth

NIFTY’s breadth has recovered from oversold levels and moved into a healthier zone. As long as the reading sustains above 50%, dips may find buying support. A move above 70% would confirm stronger market-wide participation, while a fall back below 50% would signal weakening momentum.

Foreign investors positioning

Foreign investors continued to remain cautious in Indian equities. As per the monthly trend, FIIs were net sellers again in April, extending the selling pressure seen in March. The pace of outflows has reduced compared with March, as they offloaded shares worth ₹70,135 crore.

Domestic investors, however, continued to provide strong support. DIIs remained consistent buyers in April, to the tune of ₹51,063 crore.

NIFTY50 outlook

The NIFTY50 index faced selling pressure around the 24,300 zone. On the daily chart, NIFTY is hovering around its 50-DMA near 24,036, while the 20-DMA is placed near 23,833. This shows that the index is in a consolidation phase after the recent recovery from April lows. The RSI is near 50, indicating neutral momentum and no clear directional strength yet.

The immediate support is placed at 23,500, followed by a stronger support near 22,180. On the upside, the first resistance is around 24,600, followed by the bigger weekly resistance zone of 25,000–25,150.

Disclaimer:

Derivatives trading must be done only by traders who fully understand the risks associated with them and strictly apply risk mechanisms like stop-losses. We do not recommend any particular stock, securities, or trading strategies. The securities quoted are exemplary and not recommendatory. The stock names mentioned in this article are purely to show how to do analysis.