Trade setup for July 6: Can NIFTY50 breach the 200-EMA resistance on Monday?

The Indian benchmark indices are expected to open in red amid mixed global market cues. The GIFT NIFTY futures traded 30 points lower on Monday morning, suggesting a negative start for NIFTY50.

Brent crude oil prices stayed around the $71 per barrel mark on Monday, hitting their lowest levels since late February. This comes as maritime activity through the Strait of Hormuz returned to its full scale. Furthermore, expectations of increased production by the OPEC+ have renewed concerns regarding a possible supply glut in the global market.

US stock market futures opened in the green on Monday after a long weekend holiday. NASDAQ futures rose on Monday morning, ahead of SpaceX's inclusion in the index on July 6. Investors are reassessing the risks of AI trade and also awaiting the Fed minutes of the July policy meeting.

Asian markets opened mixed on Monday as investors seemed cautious about the overheating in the technology and chip stocks. The Japanese Nikkei index fell over 1%, while Korea’s KOSPI plunged 1.7% on Monday morning. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose over 1% on a stronger-than-expected PMI print, which boosted sentiment.

NIFTY50 chart

The NIFTY50 ended the previous week on a strong note, gaining 80 points on Friday to end above 24,250. Despite volatility in global markets, the index successfully maintained its upward trajectory. On the daily charts, the NIFTY50 is now eyeing the pivotal 200-day EMA at 24,450, which was last broken on February 27, 2026. A sustained close above this level would confirm fresh follow-through momentum for the long term. Conversely, the 24,000 zone remains a key support for the index in the long term.

NIFTY50 OI analysis

The open interest data for tomorrow’s weekly expiry suggests that 24,000 may act as a strong floor for NIFTY50 with the highest open interest on the put side, for the strike price. However, the 24,300, 24,400 and 24,500 calls hold strong open interest concentration, suggesting a limited upside.