US-Venezuela conflict: Bajaj Auto’s statement; oil, gold & silver outlook among 5 things you need to know on Monday, January 5

According to foreign media reports, Maduro and his wife have been brought to the US, where he has been indicted on drug charges in New York.

Knee-jerk reaction likely

Market experts believe that the Indian equity markets may witness a knee-jerk reaction to the development. However, there won't be a major impact.

India's imports of Venezuelan oil dropped sharply after the 2019 sanctions imposed by the USA.

Amit Kumar Gupta, founder of Fintrekk Capital, a SEBI-registered research analyst, stated that oil imports from Venezuela account for a mere 0.3% ($255 million) of India's total YTD FY26 imports, which can be easily replaced within a short period.

“Venezuela accounts for about 3.5% of OPEC’s total oil exports and about 1% of global oil supplies. Most of these exports go to China only. No major impact on energy security in India," the analyst added.

Indian oil sector

India was once a major processor of Venezuelan heavy crude, importing more than 4,00,000 barrels per day at peak levels, until sweeping US sanctions and rising compliance risks forcibly shut down purchases in 2020.

Its flagship overseas producer, ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL), jointly operates the San Cristobal oilfield in eastern Venezuela, but output has been severely curtailed as US restrictions blocked access to critical technology, equipment, and services – leaving commercially viable reserves effectively stranded.

The report added that Venezuela has failed to pay OVL $536 million in dividends due on its 40% stake in the field up to 2014 and a near-equivalent amount for the subsequent period, for which Caracas has refused to permit audits, effectively freezing settlement of the claims.

Sanctions could be eased after a dramatic US operation removed President Nicolas Maduro and placed the country's vast oil reserves under American oversight.

Gold, silver likely to witness heightened volatility

Prices of precious metals such as gold and silver are expected to witness heightened volatility given the geopolitical development.

According to experts, commodities markets are expected to see aggressive trading on Monday, reflecting volatile geopolitics.

"The development could jolt global markets, pushing bullion and crude oil prices higher on fears of supply disruptions from Venezuela, which holds the world's largest proven oil reserves," experts opine.

Impact on India's trade with Venezuela

The US-Venezuela conflict will have a negligible impact on India's trade with the South American country, think tank GTRI said on Sunday.

"India faces negligible impact, as trade with Venezuela has collapsed under sanctions, with crude imports down 81.3 per cent in FY2025 and overall bilateral trade remaining marginal," the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) Founder Ajay Srivastava said.

For India, Srivastava said, the Venezuelan disturbance is unlikely to have any material economic or energy impact.

Impact on Bajaj Auto

Bajaj Auto on Sunday said its exports to Venezuela account for less than 1% of its total overseas shipments.

The South American country has plunged into a crisis after the US captured its president, Nicolas Maduro, on Saturday.

"We do export to Venezuela. Pulsar and Boxer are very popular, but these exports are less than 1% of our total exports," Rakesh Shamra, Executive Director, Bajaj Auto, said.

He was responding to a query about the implications for its operations in the country following the capture of Maduro by the US.

Venezuela’s oil reserves

Venezuela holds about 18% of the world's oil reserves, more than Saudi Arabia (around 16%), Russia (about 5-6%), or the United States (around 4%).