Metal stocks outperform in 2025: NIFTY Metal index surges 19% YTD; here are key factors driving the rally

Metal stocks have outperformed their peers in the NIFTY50 index, as the measure of metal stocks on the National Stock Exchange, the NIFTY Metal index, has jumped a whopping 19% so far this year, outperforming the NIFTY50 index, which has advanced 10% year-to-date (YTD), data from the NSE showed.

Metal stocks are witnessing buying interest on the back of surging copper, silver prices and other base metals in the international markets.

The copper price on the London Metal Exchange surged to a record high of $11,485 per tonne on the back of supply concerns and large quantities of the metal being shipped to the United States amid fears of potential tariffs, according to various media reports.

Traders are accelerating shipments to the US on speculation that the Trump administration may impose new import tariffs next year, potentially tightening supply in other markets.

The situation has been further unsettled by unexpected production disruptions at major mines in Indonesia, Chile and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Back home, surging commodity prices, growing expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut and strong manufacturing data lifted investor sentiment toward metal stocks, analysts said.

Manufacturing output grew 9.1% in July–September of FY26 (Q2 FY26), according to the latest official data — a sharp acceleration from 7.7% in the previous quarter (Q1 FY26) and 7.6% in the same period last year (Q2 FY25).

Goldman Sachs' bullish view

Support for metal stocks has also come from supply disruptions, policy shifts, and a surge in capital expenditure across the aluminium sector, analysts at Goldman Sachs said.

The global investment bank has maintained a selectively bullish outlook for 2026, naming copper as its top pick among base metals. Reflecting this view, Goldman raised its H1 2026 LME copper price forecast to $10,710 per tonne, up from the earlier estimate of $10,415.

However, the report signals a more cautious stance on several other metals. A wave of strong supply growth—driven largely by Chinese overseas investments—is expected to weigh on prices of aluminium, lithium, and iron ore through next year.

The investment bank noted that while copper remains structurally tight due to constrained mine supply and rising energy-transition demand, other metals face oversupply risks that could cap their upside in the coming year.

Silver at record high

Silver futures for March 2026 delivery soared as much as ₹3,126, or 1.72%, to a fresh lifetime high of ₹1,84,727 per kilogram on the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX) on Wednesday.

Similarly, white metal contracts for the May 2026 expiry surged as much as ₹3,323, or 1.81%, to a record high of ₹1,87,125 per kilogram.

In the international market, Comex silver (for January 2026 delivery) rallied to a new all-time high of $59.165 per troy ounce. Meanwhile, Comex gold stood at $4,251.30 per ounce, up by 0.72%.

Year-to-date (YTD) performance of metal stocks

Among the individual shares in the NIFTY Metal index, copper and aluminium producers have outperformed other metal producers.

Hindustan Copper has advanced 37% so far this year, while Hindalco has jumped 35%. Tata Steel has surged 21%, Hindustan Zinc has gained 14%, and NALCO has climbed 26%.