RBI MPC to US Fed meeting: Key upcoming events for markets, policy and economic data

December 2025 has begun with a crucial line-up of key economic events: From GST collection data to PMI services and from RBI MPC to US Federal Reserve Meeting, the closing month of the year could significantly shape the upcoming year. 

Upcoming events: Key indicators to watch out for

Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an economic indicator that measures the performance of a sector based on a monthly survey of purchasing managers. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 signals contraction in the manufacturing segment. 

PMI Services, which indicates the performance of the service sector, is another crucial indicator and a large contributor to the GDP. It is expected to be released this week and is likely to influence overall Q3 growth. In October, India's Services PMI was 58.9, down from 60.9 in September.  

This year, the RBI has cut the key interest rate (repo) three times, bringing the total deduction to 100 basis points (bps). In the last two MPC meetings, the RBI has kept the rate unchanged. While speculators suggest another 25 bps rate cut for December, market experts expect the RBI to keep the rate unchanged.

However, as per reports, the market is fully pricing in a rate cut for December. 

Food inflation in October was at -5.02%, down from -2.33% in September, driven by lower prices following the GST overhaul introduced in September.

The Wholesale Price Index (WPI), expected to be announced around December 15, along with CPI, is expected to offer clarity on price trends across the country’s supply chain. In October, India’s wholesale inflation rate rose to a four-month high of 2.36% from 1.8% in September. 

Notably, markets will remain closed on December 25 for Christmas. Trading on the Multi-Commodity Exchange will also be paused for both trading sessions on Christmas Day.

Key upcoming events in December 2025

Auto sales and GST Collection data, November 2025

The month of December has already begun with two important indicators: auto sales data and GST collection figures.

In November 2025, Indian auto sales remained robust due to lower GST rates and strong festive demand post-Diwali, along with increased exports. Maruti Suzuki hit its highest-ever monthly sales volume at 229,021 units, while its exports also hit an all-time high of 46,057 units.

Mahindra & Mahindra regained the second position in passenger vehicle sales, with its total sales increasing by 19% year-on-year (YoY). 

Meanwhile, India’s gross Goods and Services Tax (GST) revenue in November rose by 0.7% YoY to ₹1,70,276 crore, as per provisional data. Domestic GST revenue, excluding imports, fell 2.3% to ₹1,24,300 crore. 

Several other important indicators and data releases, including US Non-Farm Payrolls and Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data, could also be market-moving, setting the tone for the new year.