Will HDB Financial listing break the big-ticket IPO jinx?

The ₹12,500 crore IPO was booked 17.6 times, with the retail investors’ portion being subscribed by 1.51 times. The NII portion was booked over 10.5 times, while the qualified institutions' buyers' quota was subscribed 58.6 times.

Investors who got the IPO allotment will now be looking forward to the listing. However, HDB Financial's market debut could make some investors anxious ahead of its listing, as the company looks to break the jinx of big-ticket IPOs.

Most of the big-ticket IPOs with an issue size of ₹10,000 crore and above caught investors' attention in the initial phase of SEBI approvals (DHRP and RHP acceptance phase). However, when these IPOs opened for subscription, investors turned away from them, resulting in weak subscription in some of these public issues. Many such mega IPOs tumbled on the listing day with negative to minimal returns to investors.

As seen from the above table, 4 out of 6 big-ticket IPOs failed to give a positive return on the listing day. Meanwhile, Swiggy, which delivered a 16.9% return on listing day, failed to sustain that return in subsequent months. The stock hit a 52-week low of ₹297 per share in May 2025 owing to profit booking, weak quarterly results and IPO lock-in period expiry. The stock currently trades around ₹394, which is close to its IPO issue price of ₹390.

Coal India also has a similar story. Although the stock gave a positive return after listing, Coal India shares dropped below the IPO issue price of ₹245 per share to as low as ₹123 apiece in January 2021.

Experts believe one of the probable reasons for weak listing is that these mega IPOs generally come at very high valuations, which leads to muted performance post-listing, as there is no further room left for stock gains, leading to saturation.

Another key reason is that these mega IPOs with high issue sizes take away a large amount of market liquidity, leading to inadequate capital for investors once the company makes a secondary market debut. As a result, the stock tumbled on listing day. A similar pattern was observed in the IPO listings of LIC and Reliance Power.

Can HDB Financial break this mega IPO jinx?

As reported by Livemint, HDB Financial IPO has decent grey market premium (GMP) of between ₹52 to ₹57 per share. This implies a potential gain of between 7% and 8% at the upper end of the price band.

Grey market premium (GMP) is a rough indicator of how IPO stock could debut on the listing day. Although grey market trading is not approved by the stock exchanges and SEBI, many investors track GMP before IPO shares are listed on the exchanges. It is important to note that market sentiments and volatility on the listing day can impact the stock’s listing.

Experts believe HDB Financial Services has strong parentage and brand power of HDFC Bank, which is a big positive for the company’s business. Meanwhile, in terms of subscription, the HDB Financial IPO is well placed compared to other mega IPOs as it was booked nearly 17 times compared to a single-digit subscription in the public issue of Hyundai Motor, LIC India, Paytm and Swiggy.

Disclaimer:

This article is only for educational purposes. The stock discussed in this article is not a buy or sell recommendation. Investors are advised to conduct their own analysis and risk due diligence before trading and investing in the stock market. The securities quoted are exemplary and are not recommended. The stock names mentioned in this article are purely for showing how to do analysis.