TCS Q4 results: Revenue and profit likely to see modest rise; focus on AI business growth and final dividend

IT major Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) will announce its Q4 results on Thursday, April 9, 2026 kickstarting the fourth quarter earnings season.

TCS is expected to report low single-digit revenue growth of 2% to 4% QoQ and 7 to 8% YoY during the March quarter. The revenue is expected to remain between ₹69,100 and ₹69,850 crore, while TCS reported revenue of ₹67,087 crore in the previous quarter and ₹64,479 crore in Q4FY25. TCS revenue could improve, aided by new deal wins, while the rupee depreciation may help margins.

On the profitability front, the IT major may report a 4 to 5% rise in net profit sequentially and 12 to 13% YoY. Net profit could remain in the range of ₹13,790 to ₹13,910 crore. The company reported a net profit of ₹12,224 crore in Q4FY25 and ₹13,208 crore in the previous quarter.

Experts believe the net profit growth is likely to be aided by higher EBIT margins which could remain stable at 25.2% to 25.3%, supported by rupee depreciation compared to the U.S dollar. Meanwhile, new deal wins are expected to remain in the range of $7 to 9 billion.

Investors will closely watch new deal wins and management’s commentary on the business outlook during the fourth quarter results. Impact of the ongoing Middle East conflict on the IT business and the fear of AI advancement on business will also be key.

Revenue from the artificial intelligence (AI) business and progress on planned data centre investments will also be closely watched.

Ahead of the Q4 result announcement, TCS shares are trading 0.5% higher at ₹2,565. So far this year, TCS shares are down over 19% and have also hit a 52-week low of ₹2,346 amid a sell-off in broader markets following the US-Israel-Iran.

Technical outlook

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) has been in a clear downtrend, trading below its 20, 50 and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), indicating a weak overall structure. Following a sharp decline, the stock formed a base near the ₹2,350 zone, which is now providing immediate support.

There has been a short-term pullback, with the price reclaiming the 20 EMA and moving towards the ₹2,560 resistance zone. The RSI has also moved above 50, suggesting improving momentum in the near term.

However, the trend remains corrective unless the stock closes above ₹2,560. A decisive move above this level could trigger further growth towards ₹2,750. Conversely, if the stock fails to hold above ₹2,350, the primary downtrend may resume.

Options outlook

Open interest data for the 28 April expiry indicates substantial put writing at the 2,400 strike, suggesting support around this zone. Meanwhile, the call base was seen at 2,600 strike, indicating resistance around this zone.

The at-the-money (ATM) strike on 7 April is at 2,540 strike and is priced at ₹165, implying an expected price movement of ±6.5% before the 28 April contracts expire. To judge this, let's examine how TCS has historically reacted around earnings announcements.

Options strategy and approach

The options market is currently factoring in a ±6.5% move in TCS for the April expiry, indicating scope for a volatility-driven trade on either side.

For traders expecting a sharp move, the long straddle remains a suitable strategy. It involves buying at-the-money call and put options with the same strike and expiry. The payoff comes if TCS moves beyond the implied ±6.5% range.

Conversely, if the view is for consolidation, a short straddle can be considered. This involves selling both the at-the-money call and put, benefiting if the stock stays within the ±6.5% band around the strike.

For positional setups, traders may look at defined-risk strategies such as a bull call spread or a bear put spread, depending on whether the price breaks out or breaks down from the current range.

Disclaimer:

Derivatives trading must be done only by traders who fully understand the risks associated with them and strictly apply risk mechanisms like stop losses. The information is only for educational purposes. We do not recommend any particular stock, securities or strategies for trading. The stock names mentioned in this article are purely for showing how to do analysis. Take your own decision before investing.