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  5. Gold futures trade flat, while silver below ₹89,000 level; crude oil sustains positive trend; check today's trade setup

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Gold futures trade flat, while silver below ₹89,000 level; crude oil sustains positive trend; check today's trade setup

Upstox
By Upstox News Desk

4 min read | Updated on December 30, 2024, 18:54 IST

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SUMMARY

As mentioned in last week’s blog, crude oil has continued its bullish momentum following the formation and breakout from a classic pole-and-flag pattern. It has now reached a critical resistance zone of ₹6,100. A decisive breakout above this level on a closing basis could further reinforce the uptrend.

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Commodity trade setup 30 Dec: Gold and Silver trade flat, Crude oil sustains bullish trend

Market recap (as of 6:30 pm)

  • Gold 5 Feb Futures: ₹76,667/ 10 gram (▲ 0.16%)
  • Silver 5 March Futures: ₹88,764/ 1 kg (▼ 0.14%)
  • Crude Oil 17 Jan Futures: ₹6,062/ 1 BBL (▲ 0.45%)
Gold: The yellow metal trades marginally higher today, with spot gold trading 0.07% higher at $2,633 per ounce, aided by flat movement in the US dollar index. Precious metals investors awaited further signals on the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and President-elect Donald Trump's tariff policies, which could impact the metal's 2025 outlook.
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Silver: Silver also traded marginally higher, up 0.09% at $29.99 per ounce in the spot market. Precious metal investors are looking forward to key economic data, including US initial jobless claim numbers, which will be announced later this week, China's PMI factory survey, due on Tuesday, and the U.S. ISM survey for December, which will be released on Friday.
Crude Oil: Oil prices are trading higher on Monday, with Brent Futures trading around $73.96, up 0.23%, while WTI Crude traded 0.31% higher around $70.80. Oil prices are trading marginally higher as traders await key economic data from China and the US markets later this week to decide trade positions. As per experts, oil prices were supported by optimism around the Chinese economic growth. Recently, Chinese authorities have agreed to issue a record 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) in special treasury bonds in 2025.

Technical structure

Gold: The yellow metal began the week on a subdued note and is currently trading within the range established by the weekly candle of December 20th. Gold is hovering near a critical support level at the 20-week exponential moving average (EMA) and has remained range-bound for the past six weeks.

Investors should monitor the spot chart for a breakout from the $2,750 to $2,530 range, as this could offer significant directional insights. For short-term guidance, a break of the ₹75,600 to ₹77,170 range on the February 5th futures on the MCX could signal potential movement.

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Silver: After a sharp movement of over 10% in the first half of December, the silver prices started the Monday’s session within previous week’s range. It formed an inside candle last week after taking support from its 50 weekly EMA and is currently placed between 21 and 50 weekly EMAs.

The broader structure of the silver remains weak as it is trading below its 21 and 50 EMA on the daily chart. If it slips below the immediate support of ₹86,600, then it may extend the weakness. On the flip side, the trend will change in favour of bulls if silver reclaims ₹96,000 on the daily chart.

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Crude oil: The crude oil started the week on a positive note and extended last week’s positive momentum. It has entered the resistance zone of 6,100 on the daily chart, which it has failed to capture since November 2024.

In our last week’s blog, we highlighted the formation of pole and flag patterns on the 17 January’s futures chart of MCX. Additionally, it is sustaining above all the short-term exponential moving averages (EMAs) like 21 and 50. However, it is important to monitor the price action in the crucial resistance zone. If it reclaims this zone on a closing basis, then it may further extend the bullish momentum.

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The open interest data for the 15 January expiry saw significant put build-up at 6000 and 5900 strikes, indicating immediate support for the crude around this zone. On the flip side, the call base saw unwinding from 6000 and 6100 strikes.

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Disclaimer:

Derivatives trading must be done only by traders who fully understand the risks associated with them and strictly apply risk mechanisms like stop-losses. The information is only for the client's consumption, and such material should not be redistributed. We do not recommend any particular stock, securities, or strategies for trading. The securities quoted are exemplary and are not recommendatory. The stock names mentioned in this article are purely to show how to do analysis. Take your own decision before investing.

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About The Author

Upstox
Upstox News Desk is a team of journalists who passionately cover stock markets, economy, commodities, latest business trends, and personal finance.

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