How high can oil go? Saudi officials project crude at $180 if war drags on to late April

Saudi Arabian oil officials are modelling scenarios in which crude prices could surge beyond $180 a barrel if supply disruptions linked to the Iran war continue into late April, according to a Wall Street Journal report.

The projections highlight the growing concern in Riyadh that a prolonged conflict could trigger sharp price spikes that ultimately damage long-term oil demand and global economic stability.

The conflict involving Iran, Israel and the United States has already disrupted major energy infrastructure across the Gulf.

Iran retaliated against an Israeli strike on its South Pars gas field by targeting Qatar’s Ras Laffan and other regional facilities, including Saudi infrastructure at Yanbu.

On Friday, Brent crude, the international standard, briefly rose above $119 per barrel, up from roughly $70 before the war with Iran began.

Brent crude was trading 2.10% lower at $105.53 per bbl as of 7:27 am (IST) on Friday, March 20, 2026.

The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices were trading 2.72% lower at $92.95 per bbl as of 7:28 am (IST) on Friday, compared to the previous market close level of $95.55.

While higher prices typically boost revenues for the kingdom, the WSJ report suggests that the Saudi officials are wary of excessive volatility, which creates long-term market instability.

Officials are concerned that sustained high prices could trigger “demand destruction” where consumers cut fuel use or economies slow.

Saudi officials expect physical shortages to deepen in the coming weeks as pre-war stockpiles are drawn down, according to the report.

Prices for Saudi crude shipped to Asia via the Red Sea are already around $125 a barrel, and could climb toward $138–$140 in the near term, the report said.

If disruptions persist and Hormuz remains effectively closed, internal projections suggest oil could rise to $150 by early April, before escalating to $165 and potentially $180 later in the month.

Saudi Aramco is expected to finalise its official selling prices for May-loading crude by April 2, with market assessments factoring in customer demand and supply conditions.