Fitch Ratings affirms India’s BBB- long-term rating with stable outlook

Fitch Ratings has reaffirmed India's Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at BBB- with a stable outlook. India's rating has remained unchanged at 'BBB-', the lowest investment grade, since 2006. It said India's economy remains resilient despite near-term pressures from the energy shock triggered by the West Asia crisis.

The ratings agency said ‘there are residual risks from uncertainty related to the U.S.-Iran conflict, given India's position as large net energy importer, but we do not expect a durable risk to growth prospects.’ Fitch estimates India’s GDP will grow 6.4% in the current fiscal year (FY27). However, the growth is slower than the average 7.4% growth clocked over the past three years.

Fitch said a strengthening record of delivering macroeconomic stability and improving policy credibility should underpin continued robust growth and enhance economic resilience, despite near-term macroeconomic headwinds from the energy shock. It said high growth should also support a sustained improvement in structural credit metrics and increase the likelihood that government debt will trend down.

It further said India's external finances remain solid, with a low current account deficit (CAD), net external creditor position and still high forex reserves. Fitch forecasts a slight widening of the CAD to 1.4% of GDP in FY27 from 0.6% in FY26, due to the energy shock.

Earlier today, SBI Research said that the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is likely to rise to 8% in the first quarter of the current fiscal year (Q1FY27), higher than the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 7% growth projection. It noted that the underlying momentum remains broad-based. It said that, of the more than 50 leading indicators across consumption and demand, agriculture, industry, services and other sectors that it tracks, around 86% are showing acceleration in Q1FY27, compared with 69% in Q1FY26.