Mystery trader turns $30,000 bet on Maduro’s fall into $436,000 windfall

Very few would have predicted that the United States would capture Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro from the capital city of Caracas — and fewer still would have wagered money on it.

Yet, in the days leading up to Maduro’s detention, betting activity on prediction markets surged as traders speculated on whether the long-time Venezuelan strongman would be removed from power.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the market odds for Maduro being out of office climbed sharply shortly before 10 pm ET on Friday.

While prediction markets have previously seen dramatic swings around political battles, sports events and major global developments, the interest surrounding Maduro’s capture drew particular attention due to the scale of profits earned by one trader.

An unknown bettor, who opened an account on prediction market platform Polymarket only last month, appeared to invest about USD 30,000 on Friday on contracts linked to Maduro’s exit.

After Maduro went into custody early Saturday, the trader walked away with profits of $436,759.61, according to publicly available data on the platform.

The trader had earlier bought contracts worth $96 on December 27 that would pay out if the United States invaded Venezuela by January 31, and subsequently placed several similar bets in the following days.

The episode was first reported by Axios.

Prediction markets such as Polymarket allow users to buy and sell yes-or-no contracts tied to real-world events across politics, sports, entertainment and the economy.

The mystery trade is now expected to draw scrutiny from US lawmakers, who have been pressing for tougher rules to curb insider trading.

Democratic Congressman Ritchie Torres said he plans to introduce legislation this week to bar elected officials, lawmakers and federal employees from placing bets on prediction market platforms where they may have access to material non-public information.

Torres is expected to introduce the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Bill, 2026.

Polymarket has previously faced questions over potential insider trading on its platform. While US residents are currently barred from accessing its main betting platform, many traders are believed to use virtual private networks (VPNs) to circumvent the restriction.