Personal Finance News
4 min read | Updated on July 17, 2025, 08:16 IST
SUMMARY
8th Pay Commission impact: The implementation of the 7th Pay Commission in 2016 led to significant changes in consumption patterns, which in turn impacted many sectors and companies thereafter. A similar impact is expected from the 8th Pay Commission.
8th CPC is expected to consumption and related sectors. | Image source: Shutterstock
The implementation of the 8th Central Pay Commission (CPC) will not only help increase the take-home income of Central Government employees and pensioners, but it's also expected to have a larger impact on the overall markets and the economy.
The implementation of the 7th Pay Commission in 2016 led to significant changes in consumption patterns, which in turn impacted many sectors and companies thereafter. A similar impact is expected from the 8th CPC.
In a recent report, Ambit Capital, a financial services firm, said, "Based on historical trends, shifts in consumption patterns since the 7th Pay Commission along with views of our sector-analysts, we expect that sectors like motor vehicles, banks, FMCG, Quick Service Restaurants (QSR), etc. should benefit from the consumption boost when salary hikes get rolled out."
However, the magnitude of the consumption boost due to the 8th CPC will depend on the actual pay hikes, which is likely to be anywhere between 14% and 54%.
"The magnitude of the boost will depend on how big the actual salary hikes are, based on the fitment factor used and when the implementation happens. Delay in implementation could reflect as higher arrear payments, which could mean a higher one-time boost to discretionary consumption," the report said.
As per Ambit Capital's report, the 8th CPC hikes would benefit consumer discretionary, automobiles, real estate, etc.
The report shared the following names of the sectors, companies, and the reasons why they may benefit from the 8th Pay Commission salary hikes.
Sector | Reason | Companies |
---|---|---|
Automobile | As per data and qualitative evidence, government employees and pensioners tend to purchase PV and 2-heelers, especially of the entry-level segments post pay commission announcements. | Hero Motorcorp and Maruti Suzuki |
Real estate | Our channel checks have suggested real estate purchases by Central government employees increase once pay commission recommendations are implemented. The HRA component of salary will also increase by the fitment multiple. | Developers that are catering to the affordable segment will be the key beneficiaries. |
Banks | Pay commission hikes lead to a surge in liquidity as ~11.1mn beneficiaries would see a surge in salaries/pensions. | PSU Banks primarily SBI, along with a few regional players like Indian Bank, Canara Bank etc. Among private banks, Axis Bank, Yes Bank are key beneficiaries. |
Insurance Companies | There will be arrear payouts, which could be deployed in annuities or guaranteed return schemes. | HDFC Life, SBI Life, Max Financials, IPRU, LIC |
Non Lending Financial Companies | Indians generally have a high propensity to save. As seen in the last 10 years, savings have been shifting away from bank deposits to equities/mutual funds. | HDFC MF (NOT COVERED), Nippon MF (NOT COVERED), KFIN, CAMS, ANGEL ONE (NOT COVERED) |
Cards | As spending will increase, government employees may increase usage of credit cards to avail of better rewards. | SBI cards |
FMCG | Higher purchasing power is expected to aid premiumisation trends. | Companies such as United Spirits and United Breweries would benefit, especially from the premiumisation trend. |
Consumer discretionary | As purchasing power increases, expect growth in discretionary spending as greater financial space for impulse purchases and planned travelling etc. | Apparel (Trent), Groceries (DMart), Footwear (Bata), Value Retailers (Vishal Mega Mart, V2 Retail, V-Mart, Style Baazar), QSR (Jubilant, Devyani, Sapphire Foods) |
Consumer durables | Across the board, electronics will benefit as aspirational purchases, especially amongst lower-income government jobs. | Crompton, Orient Electric, Bajaj Electricals and other light electricals and kitchen appliance companies (TTK Prestige, V-Guard, etc.) |
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