From jewellery to food: What got costlier, what remained cheaper in February and what to expect next

What became costlier

Both categories recorded higher inflation compared to January 2026, when silver jewellery inflation stood at 160.12% while that of gold/diamond/platinum jewellery was 46.80%.

The "imported inflation" in February reached 5.7%, a full 2.45% higher than overall headline inflation. "Due to exchange rate fluctuations (rupee dollar exchange rate already hovering between 91-93 per dollar with a negative bias) and external shocks like supply chain disruptions (brent crude flip flopping around $100), imported inflation (weight: 24.4%) is already at 5.7% (245 bps more than the headline) for Feb’26 and is expected to increase considerably further," SBI Research said in a report.

The personal care inflation increased to 19.66% in February.

What remained cheaper in 2026?

Even as the broader food and beverage category drove inflation up, several food items saw only a marginal month-over-month increase. Consumers benefited as prices didn't increase sharply compared to January.

Despite showing massive year-over-year inflation numbers, the actual month-over-month prices for silver and platinum declined in February when compared to January.

Several sectors within the urban consumer basket saw their inflation rates ease compared to the previous month.

• Health: Declined from 2.16% in January to 1.86% in February.
• Clothing and footwear: Declined from 2.92% in January to 2.82% in February.
• Recreation, sports, and culture: Dipped from 2.26% in January to 2.23% in February.

Categories like household equipment, education services, and restaurant services also registered minor decreases in their inflation rate.

What is expected next in 2026?

According to SBI Research report, inflation may worsen due to two major looming threats:

The ongoing war in West Asia has resulted in a near shutdown of maritime trade and left the Strait of Hormuz virtually closed. Because of this, the prices of Brent crude, natural gas, and fertilizers are expected to spike, which will directly translate into higher domestic and imported inflation throughout the year.

The report says that weather patterns along with ongoing geopolitical risk affecting the energy prices can adversely impact inflation in 2026.

"With West Asia war continuing and strait of Hormuz virtually closed, price of fertilisers, natural gas and brent crude can spike which will translate into higher inflation in the domestic market."

While gold continues to shine, silver could get a clue from demand revival from new age industries as and when the Middle East tension abates in 2026.

The report says that global weather forecasts indicate a potential transition to an El Nino phase in 2026. At present, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a negative phase. The combination of El Nino with a negative IOD historically leads to deficient Indian monsoons.

"The recent forecast for global weather patterns indicate possible build up on El Nino in 2026. The recent trends in Nino 3.4 SST Index shows that ENSO is currently in neutral phase but may transition to positive either in 2026 or in latter part of 2026. Indian Monsoon are influenced by both ENSO and movements of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Nino along with negative IOD typically leads to deficient monsoon (see orange bands). Currently IOD is negative and forecast for El Nino forming range from 40-60%," the report said.