8th Pay Commission salary hike date: Why it's too early to estimate even after 9 months

It has been around nine months since the first announcement of the 8th Central Pay Commission, and it is still too early to guess or estimate the salary hike date under the 8th CPC. But why, you may ask? The following are the reasons:

First, the 8th Pay Commission has not even started its work as the government has not yet set it up.

Second, the Government has not yet notified the 8th CPC's terms of reference and members.

Third, once the 8th CPC starts its work, it may take 1-1.5 years to submit its report containing pay revision recommendations to the government.

Fourth, the government may take up to 6-9 months or more to accept or review those recommendations before finally implementing them.

Fifth, based on the above two points, one might estimate that the 8th CPC could be implemented in two years. However, even this is uncertain as government bodies have their own pace of working.

It is difficult to predict how long a pay commission may take to submit a report, or how long the government may take to implement its recommendations. The process could be delayed further or, unexpectedly, implemented earlier than anticipated.

"The 8th Pay Commission recommendations (to be submitted by the end of CY25) would stand effective from Jan’26 but will only be implemented once it is approved," it added.

"Based on previous CPC timelines, we expect 8th CPC recommendations to be implemented around 4QCY26/1QCY27. We note that average time taken to submit the report is around 1.5 years from the date of CPC formation (1.5 years for 6th CPC and 7th CPC; around three years for 4th CPC and 5th CPC). The time taken by the government to implement after report submission has been 3-9 months," it said.

However, please note that a delay in the implementation of the 8th CPC is unlikely to result in loss of revised pay, as the government generally pays arrears when wage revisions are delayed.

For instance, although the government recently announced the dearness allowance effective from July 1, 2025, arrears will also be paid for the months of July, August and September.

Similarly, the government had paid arrears even when the revised salaries under the 7th CPC were implemented late.