Can Gold resume its upward trend during July-December 2026? Here's what WGC says

International gold prices may resume the upward trend in the second half of the year (July-December, 2026) if there is a "clear catalyst", according to the World Gold Council (WGC).

In its mid-year outlook report for 2026, the WGC answered the query on "Can gold resume its upward trend?" by saying: "The short answer is yes; but it requires a clear catalyst."

The report says the catalyst required for the upward trend could come from three primary sources:

• Worsening economic or geopolitical conditions

• A reversal in interest-rate expectations

• Long-term investor participation.

The report said that if current conditions do not materially change, gold may trade ±5% around US$4,100/oz during the second half of the year.

The WGC expects the gold to resume its upward trend around US$4500/oz. However, only a clear signal would help the yellow metal prices push towards $5000/oz.

"...In this context, our macro-based scenario analysis suggests that gold could resume its upward trend around US$4,500/oz, but only a strong, clear signal may push it sustainably towards US$5,000/oz," WGC said.

Gold could see further support in the second half of 2026 from buy-and-hold investors. Such investors include sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, and endowments, and other long-term asset owners, who have been increasing their participation in gold.

Gold price drawdown history

Historically, gold drawdowns stabilise around 30% from a previous peak. The following table shows drawdown data from 1 January 1971 to 26 June 2026 as quoted in the WGC report.

What could push the prices lower?

However, some factors may push the gold lower in the second half of 2026, as per WGC. These factors are:

• US dollar strength and rates rising beyond current expectations

• Investor risk-on sentiment

• Technical factors.

"In recent months, gold has been more susceptible to downside risks. Following its exceptionally strong 2025 performance, many investors have looked to take profits or rebalance holdings. The volatility increase has not helped either, as risk managers have reviewed their exposure to gold," WGC said.

However, it asserted that the downside beyond a 10-15% correction from the current level could be limited. "Overall, our macro-based scenario analysis suggests that if gold were to decline by 10%–15% from current levels, further downside would likely be limited as, historically, lower prices trigger buying from various sectors."

The report said a positive US and global economic growth could push investors towards risk assets like stocks at the expense of gold allocation.