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Week ahead: Rupee fall, crude oil prices, Q4 earnings, US-Iran peace talks among key market triggers to watch
4 min read | Updated on May 24, 2026, 10:53 IST
SUMMARY
Indian markets enter the new week on a cautious note after ending the previous week with marginal gains. The focus will remain on U.S. PCE inflation data, crude oil prices and INR movement. Technically, NIFTY50 needs a decisive move above 23,850 to regain strength, while 23,400–23,350 remains the key support zone to watch.
Crude oil prices remain elevated and will continue to be a key risk for domestic inflation. | Image: Shutterstock
Indian markets ended the week with modest gains after a volatile and rangebound move. The NIFTY50 gained nearly 0.3% for the week to close at 23,719, while the SENSEX ended at 75,415. The index moved in a wide range, but failed to sustain above the 23,800–23,850 zone, which continued to act as a key resistance.
The rupee also remained in focus. The Indian currency recovered on Friday to close near 95.69 against the U.S. dollar. However, the rupee stayed under pressure through the week due to elevated crude prices, FII outflows and global risk-off sentiment.
Sectorally, the trend was mixed. IT stocks saw a rebound after the recent correction, with the NIFTY IT index rising nearly 5% for the week. Real-Estate (+2.3%) and Defence (+1.1%) stocks also supported the market towards the end of the week.
US President Donald Trump via his Truth Social platform said a peace deal with Iran has been "largely negotiated" after calls with Israel and other allies in the region, which could potentially pave the way for an end to the three-month-long war. According to Trump, the final details of the deal are being discussed before a formal announcement.
Market breadth
Market breadth improved this week, but the recovery was not broad enough to signal a strong trend reversal yet. The percentage of NIFTY50 stocks trading above their 50-DMA moved up to around 66%, compared with nearly 40% earlier in May. This is a positive sign because participation has recovered from the sharp fall seen in March, when the reading had dropped close to 5–10%.
Foreign investors positioning
Foreign investors remained net sellers this week. Between 18 May and 22 May, FIIs sold shares worth around ₹7,572 crore in the cash market. Domestic investors continued to support the market, buying shares worth around ₹16,948 crore during the same period.The larger trend also remains weak. FIIs have sold more than ₹30,000 crore worth of Indian equities in May so far.
NIFTY50 outlook
The NIFTY50 remains in a choppy and sideways setup after failing to sustain above the 23,800–23,850 resistance zone. It is still below its 20-day EMA around 23,794, which shows that bulls have not yet regained full control. A decisive close above this zone can signal strength and open the door for a move towards the 50-day EMA near 24,004.
On the downside, 23,400 remains the important daily support. A break below this level can weaken the structure and bring the broader weekly support near 23,000 back into focus
Disclaimer:
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